贵金属市场周报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its oscillating and strengthening trend this week, with soft US economic data supporting the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The market trading sentiment remained optimistic, and speculative buying demand continued to flow in. The view on the market is cautiously bullish, and trading strategies suggest focusing on range - band trading. Attention should be paid to the callback pressure after the market fully digests the rate - cut expectation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: The precious metals market showed an oscillating and strengthening trend. Soft US economic data supported the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. US inflation data was moderately rising, and Trump's criticism of the Fed chair provided safe - haven support for gold prices. Silver outperformed gold, with the Shanghai silver main contract hitting a record high [7]. - Market Outlook: The upward momentum of the precious metals market remains resilient, with silver's upward trend stronger than gold's. The market's optimistic trading sentiment may continue until the next Fed meeting. The view is cautiously bullish, and trading strategies suggest range - band trading. Specific price ranges are provided for different contracts [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: As of September 12, 2025, COMEX silver was at $42.70 per ounce, up 2.94% month - on - month; Shanghai silver main contract was at 10,035 yuan per kilogram, up 2.27%. COMEX gold was at $3,682.30 per ounce, up 1.16%; Shanghai gold main contract was at 834.22 yuan per gram, up 2.28% [10]. - ETF Holdings: Due to partial profit - taking by long - position holders at high levels, the net positions of foreign - market gold and silver ETFs decreased slightly this week [11]. - Speculative Net Positions: As of September 2, 2025, COMEX gold's total positions increased by 11.08% month - on - month, and net positions increased by 16.43%. COMEX silver's total positions decreased by 0.17%, and net positions increased by 20.35% [21]. - Basis: This week, the basis of Shanghai gold weakened, while that of silver strengthened [22]. - Inventory: The inventory trends of gold and silver in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX were divergent [27]. 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand Situation - Silver Industry: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly, while silver ore imports rebounded significantly. Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise [33][38]. - Silver Supply and Demand: The silver supply - demand situation was in a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year [42][48]. - Gold Industry: This week, the gold recycling price and gold jewelry price increased with the rise of gold prices [52]. - Gold Supply and Demand: In Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. Central bank gold purchases slowed down, and high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [56]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - Macroeconomic Data: The US dollar oscillated downward this week, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was under pressure. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio declined. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate decreased. In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [60][64][68][72].