硅铁市场周报：电费上调成本增加，短期价格有所支撑-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The cost of ferrosilicon has increased due to the rise in electricity prices, providing short - term support for prices. However, the overall demand for steel is still weak. The ferrosilicon market is affected by multiple factors, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5540 - 5750 [6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - Macro - economic situation: In China, Shenzhen has relaxed purchase restrictions, and in August, exports and imports increased year - on - year. The foreign exchange reserve in July increased month - on - month, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months. Overseas, Russia has launched a new railway, and the US non - farm employment has been revised downward [6] - Supply - demand situation: After the profit improved, production quickly recovered. Most manufacturers hedged in the early stage, and inventory was moderately weak. The cost of semi - coke and electricity in Ningxia increased, strengthening cost support, but the steel demand expectation remained weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 340 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 230 yuan/ton. The tender price of HeSteel for 75B ferrosilicon in September was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from the previous round [6] - Technical analysis: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [6] - Strategy recommendation: Due to policy information interference, the market is volatile. The main ferrosilicon contract is expected to oscillate between 5540 - 5750 [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures market: As of September 12, the position of the ferrosilicon futures contract was 421,400 lots, a decrease of 30,200 lots from the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract month spread was 108, a decrease of 2 points. The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 16,465, a decrease of 1,844. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [8][10][14] - Spot market: As of September 12, the ferrosilicon basis was - 376 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 points [19] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Production and inventory: The national average daily production of ferrosilicon decreased by 1.70% week - on - week, and the demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products decreased by 1.69% week - on - week. The national inventory of ferrosilicon increased by 3,380 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.08% [25][29] - Upstream situation: As of September 8, the electricity price for ferrosilicon in Ningxia increased by 0.02 yuan/kWh, while that in Inner Mongolia remained flat. As of September 11, the average semi - coke price in Ningxia remained flat. As of September 12, the spot production cost in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained flat, and the spot production profit in Ningxia increased by 50 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia increased by 90 yuan/ton [33][37] - Downstream situation: The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 117,100 tons week - on - week. From January to July 2025, the total ferrosilicon export volume was 236,000 tons, a decrease of 4.91% compared to the same period last year [41]