Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated weakly this week, with a decline of 4.17% and an amplitude of 10.75%. The closing price of the main contract was 71,160 yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of fundamentals, the spot price of lithium carbonate has weakened recently, pulling down the lithium ore quotation. Overseas mines are reluctant to sell at low prices, while domestic smelters are actively inquiring but the overall trading volume is light [5]. - The domestic supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase steadily and slightly, as smelters maintain a stable and slightly increasing production rhythm, and inventories are declining [5]. - During the traditional consumption peak season, downstream material manufacturers have good production schedules and new orders, with certain rigid - demand purchasing needs. The downstream inventory is increasing, and the market trading sentiment has improved [5]. - Overall, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are in a stage of stable and slightly increasing supply and gradually improving demand. The total industrial inventory has decreased slightly, and the consumption outlook is positive. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly on the weekly line, with a decline of 4.17% and an amplitude of 10.75%. The closing price of the main contract was 71,160 yuan/ton [5]. - Macroeconomic Situation: In August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year due to a higher base and weak food prices. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the fourth consecutive month [5]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of lithium carbonate has weakened, pulling down the lithium ore quotation. Overseas mines are reluctant to sell, and domestic smelter transactions are light. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is improving [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of September 12, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate was 71,160 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 440 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot Price: As of September 12, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,300 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 1,290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 800 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of September 12, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 886 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1235, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23% [21]. - Lithium Mica: As of September 12, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The average price of amblygonite was 6,845 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 280 yuan/ton [26]. 3.4 Industry Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77% and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. As of August 2025, the monthly output was 45,880 tons, an increase of 1,280 tons from July, an increase of 2.87% and a year - on - year increase of 31.09%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [32]. - Downstream Demand: - Hexafluorophosphoric Lithium: The average price remained flat week - on - week. As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 44.16% [35]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The average price remained flat week - on - week. As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [38]. - Ternary Materials: The prices of 811, 622, and 523 types continued to weaken. As of July 2025, the monthly output was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [42]. - Lithium Manganate: The average price remained flat week - on - week. As of July 2025, the monthly output was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decrease of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.21% [47]. - Lithium Cobaltate: The average price remained flat week - on - week. As of July 2025, the monthly output was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 71.14% [50]. - New Energy Vehicles: As of July 2025, the penetration rate was 44.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The monthly production was 1,243,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%, and the monthly sales were 1,262,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [52][57]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was 0.04, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option strategy to bet on increased volatility [60].
碳酸锂市场周报：供给稳定需求增长，锂价或将有所支撑-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 09:56