Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube rebounded, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. The temperature in the main production areas of Xinjiang grey jujube is between 15°C - 31°C, and the jujube trees have entered the sugar - increasing period. There may be light rain in mid - to late September, and attention should be paid to the actual rainfall and jujube fruit quality changes [10]. - As of September 11, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The inventory of sample points decreased slightly. The arrival volume in the sales area market is low, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. The mentality of holders has clearly diverged, and some are reluctant to sell and are waiting to see the future market. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, and the market is still in a state of seeking direction in dynamic balance [10]. - It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term operation of the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - Future trading tips include spot price and consumer end [10]. - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.41% [10]. - The temperature in the main production areas of Xinjiang grey jujube is between 15°C - 31°C, and the jujube trees have entered the sugar - increasing period. There may be light rain in mid - to late September, and attention should be paid to the actual rainfall and jujube fruit quality changes [10]. - As of September 11, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The inventory of sample points decreased slightly [10][38]. - The arrival volume in the sales area market is low, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. The mentality of holders has clearly diverged, and some are reluctant to sell and are waiting to see the future market. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, and the market is still in a state of seeking direction in dynamic balance [10]. - It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term operation of the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube: the selling price is 11155, the buying price is 11150, the latest price is 11155 with a decline of 30 or 0.27%, the current volume is 2, the trading volume is 94651, the open interest is 133338, the daily increase is - 4322, the highest price is 11270, the lowest price is 11110, the outside market volume is 46470, the settlement price is 11190, the ratio of Inner Mongolia is 50.9%, the limit - up price is 12080, and the limit - down price is 10290 [11]. - As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures is - 4977 lots [12]. - As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts is 9986 [17]. - As of this week, the price difference between the 2601 contract and the 2605 contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures is - 135 yuan/ton [20]. - As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujube and the main contract of jujube futures is - 665 yuan/ton [23]. - As of September 12, 2025, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu is 4.80 yuan/kg, in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar is 6.0 yuan/kg [26]. - As of September 12, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei and Henan is 4.75 yuan/jin [30]. - As of September 12, 2025, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei is 10.49 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan is 10.5 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Supply side: As of September 11, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The inventory of sample points decreased slightly [10][38]. - Supply side: The jujube production has recovered significantly. In the 2024/25 production season, the jujube production increased to 606.9 million tons [41]. - Demand side: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly export volume of jujubes was 1784164 kg, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%; from January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 18899838 kg, a month - on - month increase of 10.42% [43]. - Demand side: The trading of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand is cold, and there were only a small number of transactions in the order volume this week [48]. 3.4 Option Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Option market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options of jujubes this week is presented in the figure, but no specific data is given [49]. - Stock market: The price - earnings ratio of Hao Xiang Ni is presented in the figure, but no specific data is given [51][52].
红枣市场周报-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 09:56