瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures fell 0.92%, and the glass futures fell 0.76%. The soda ash futures showed a platform shock trend, and the glass futures also showed a platform shock trend [6]. - For soda ash, the supply is expected to be loose, the demand will stabilize, and the price will continue to be under pressure, but there may be variables with the "anti - involution" hype. For glass, the market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. There may be sentiment - driven opportunities in the short term [6]. - The recommended trading range for SA2601 contract is 1280 - 1360, with a stop - loss range of 1240 - 1380. For FG2601, the recommended operating range is 1120 - 1220, with a stop - loss range of 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures fell 0.92% this week, showing a platform shock trend. Glass futures fell 0.76%, also in a platform shock trend [6]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, supply is expected to be loose, demand will stabilize, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, the market will revolve around demand, and there may be short - term sentiment - driven opportunities [6]. - Strategy Recommendations: SA2601 contract should be traded in the 1280 - 1360 range, with a stop - loss of 1240 - 1380. FG2601 should be operated in the 1120 - 1220 range, with a stop - loss of 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Both soda ash and glass futures prices closed higher this week [8]. - Spot Prices and Basis: Soda ash spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. Glass spot prices strengthened, and the basis weakened but is expected to strengthen in the future. The soda ash - glass price spread weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [13][18][22]. - Specific Data: As of September 11, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1197.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton, and the soda ash basis was - 89.5 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1072 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was - 113 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash price spread was 102 yuan/ton [16][20][24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week, and the production is expected to decline next week. As of September 11, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 87.46%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%, and the national weekly soda ash production was 76.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.253% [26][31]. - Corporate Profits: Soda ash corporate profits declined this week, and costs increased. Glass corporate profits increased due to stronger spot prices. Soda ash production capacity is expected to decline next week, and glass production capacity will hover at a low level [33]. - Glass Production: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines remained unchanged, and the overall production increased slightly. The production is expected to increase slightly next week but with a limited increase. As of September 4, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 225 in production, and 71 cold - repaired and shut down. The national float glass production was 112.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.38% [38][42]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The domestic photovoltaic glass capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume increased this week and are expected to remain unchanged next week. As of September 11, 2025, the photovoltaic glass corporate capacity utilization rate was 68.52%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%, and the domestic photovoltaic glass daily melting volume was 88,780 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons/day [44][46]. - Corporate Inventories: Domestic soda ash and glass corporate inventories declined this week, and the de - stocking is expected to slow down next week. As of September 11, 2025, the soda ash corporate inventory was 179.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, and the total glass corporate inventory was 61.583 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.32% [48][52]. - Downstream Demand: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly, but the demand remains low. As of September 1, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days [54][56].