Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The terminal demand for rebar is sluggish, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. The RB2601 contract may fluctuate within the range of 3080 - 3160. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the opportunity arises [2][9][60] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary Market Review - As of September 12, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton (-16), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan/ton (-10). Rebar production continued to decline to 211.93 million tons (-6.75), with a year - on - year increase of 24.01 million tons. Apparent demand decreased again to 18.07 million tons (-4), a year - on - year decrease of 51.85 million tons. Total rebar inventory was 653.86 million tons (+13.86), with a year - on - year increase of 160.23 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [7] Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US non - farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, far less than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on about 1400 items from countries without free - trade agreements. Domestically, multiple ministries and commissions will promote capacity management in key industries and implement policies to support employment and foreign trade. - Supply - demand aspect: Rebar weekly production continued to decline, capacity utilization was 46.46%, and the EAF steel operating rate declined again. Terminal demand was weak, inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks, and apparent demand decreased. - Cost aspect: Iron ore was firm due to lower shipments and a significant increase in hot metal. Coke spot prices were lowered, but coking coal futures prices were oscillating strongly. - Technical aspect: The RB2601 contract oscillated downward, with a bearish arrangement of daily K - line moving averages. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were below the 0 - axis, and the green bars slightly shrank. - Strategy suggestion: Considering the macro and industrial aspects, the RB2601 contract may fluctuate within the 3080 - 3160 range. Pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the RB2601 contract oscillated weakly. The RB2510 contract was weaker than the RB2601 contract, and the spread on the 12th was -92 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [15] Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar warehouse receipt volume was 252,249 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,518 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 222,524 lots, an increase of 38,709 lots from the previous week [22] Spot Price and Basis - On September 12, the spot price of Hangzhou's Grade III rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3269 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 12th was 123 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [28] 3. Upstream Market Furnace Charge Prices - This week, the spot price of iron ore increased, while the spot price of coke decreased. On September 12, the price of 61% Australian MacPhearson ore at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [33] Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From September 1st to 7th, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China decreased. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 304,000 tons week - on - week to 14,456,120 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 140,600 tons [37] Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.58%, an increase of 2.97%. Coke daily output was 533,000 tons, an increase of 20,900 tons [41] 4. Industry Situation Supply Side - In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In August, steel exports decreased, and imports increased [45] - Rebar weekly production decreased. On September 11, the weekly production of 139 building material production enterprises was 21.193 million tons, a decrease of 675,000 tons from the previous week [48] - The EAF steel operating rate decreased. On September 12, the average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 71.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29 percentage points [51] - Rebar total inventory increased. On September 11, the in - plant inventory of 137 building material production enterprises was 1.6663 million tons, a decrease of 47,100 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory of 35 cities was 4.8723 million tons, an increase of 185,700 tons from the previous week [54] Demand Side - From January to July 2025, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year [57] 5. Options Market - Currently, the steel market is relatively weak, but as building materials enter the peak season, downstream may have restocking demand. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the opportunity arises [60]
螺纹钢市场周报：终端需求低迷，螺纹期价震荡偏弱-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 09:55