Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Sijia [2] - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core Viewpoint: The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate strongly due to stable supply and rising demand [2][6] Group 2: Weekly Summary Market Review - Shanghai Aluminum: Oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 2.05%, closing at 21,120 yuan/ton [6] - Alumina: Oscillated weakly, with a weekly decrease of 3.06%, closing at 2,914 yuan/ton [6] - Cast Aluminum: Oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.8%, closing at 20,645 yuan/ton [8] Market Outlook - Alumina: The supply and demand are stable. The supply remains stable despite the decline in bauxite supply, and the demand has improved due to the stable operation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the recent price correction [6] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply is stable and the demand is gradually improving. The supply is stable due to the stable supply of alumina and the high operating capacity and start - up rate. The demand has improved with the arrival of the consumption peak season [6] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The supply is slightly convergent and the demand is warming up. The raw material cost is supported by the strong aluminum price and the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the supply is limited. The demand has improved with the arrival of the consumption peak season, but the spot market trading is still dull due to the high inventory [8] Strategy Recommendation - Shanghai Aluminum: Light - position short - term long trading on dips for the main contract [6] - Alumina: Light - position oscillating trading for the main contract [6] - Cast Aluminum: Light - position oscillating trading for the main contract [8] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Price Changes - Shanghai Aluminum: As of September 12, 2025, the closing price was 21,285 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan/ton or 2.75% from September 5 [11] - LME Aluminum: As of September 11, 2025, the closing price was 2,679 US dollars/ton, up 89 US dollars/ton or 3.44% from September 5 [11] - Alumina Futures: As of September 12, 2025, the price was 2,875 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton or 2.48% from September 5 [15] - Cast Aluminum Futures: As of September 12, 2025, the closing price was 20,645 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton or 1.8% from September 5 [15] - Alumina Spot: In Henan, the average price was 3,065 yuan/ton on September 12, down 55 yuan/ton or 1.76% from September 5; in Shanxi, it was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton or 2.74% from September 5; in Guiyang, it was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton or 2.74% from September 5 [26][27] - Cast Aluminum Spot: The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,050 yuan/ton on September 12, up 300 yuan/ton or 1.45% from September 5 [27] - Domestic Shanghai Aluminum Spot: As of September 12, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,050 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan/ton or 1.79% from September 5, with a spot discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last week [30] Other Indicators - Shanghai Aluminum Position: As of September 12, 2025, the position was 611,039 lots, an increase of 76,550 lots or 14.32% from September 5 [18] - Shanghai Aluminum Top 20 Net Position: As of September 12, 2025, it was 4,602 lots, an increase of 4,949 lots from September 5 [18] - Aluminum - Zinc Futures Spread: As of September 12, 2025, it was 1,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton from September 5 [24] - Copper - Aluminum Futures Spread: As of September 12, 2025, it was 59,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 495 yuan/ton from September 5 [24] - LME Aluminum Near - Month and 3 - Month Spread: As of September 11, 2025, it was 11.06 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.55 US dollars/ton from September 4 [29] Group 4: Industry Situation Inventory - LME Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: As of September 11, 2025, it was 485,275 tons, an increase of 5,675 tons or 1.18% from September 4 [36] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: As of September 5, 2025, it was 124,078 tons, a decrease of 1,518 tons or 1.21% from last week [35] - Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Social Inventory: As of September 11, 2025, it was 570,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons or 0.35% from September 4 [35] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Warehouse Receipt: As of September 12, 2025, it was 72,469 tons, an increase of 12,508 tons or 20.86% from September 5 [36] - LME Electrolytic Aluminum Registered Warehouse Receipt: As of September 11, 2025, it was 375,025 tons, a decrease of 93,725 tons or 19.99% from September 4 [36] Raw Materials - Bauxite: The total import volume increased year - on - year, and the port inventory decreased. In July 2025, the monthly import volume was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 123.2607 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.65%. The nine - port inventory was 26.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 790,000 tons [39] - Scrap Aluminum: The quotation increased, and the import and export increased. In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%; the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91%. The quotation of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 300 yuan/ton week - on - week [46] Production and Trade - Alumina: The production increased year - on - year, and the import and export increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In July 2025, the import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.35% and a year - on - year increase of 78.23%; the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33% [49] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The production and import increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In July 2025, the import volume was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%; from January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. In July 2025, the export volume was 41,000 tons; from January to July, the cumulative export volume was 126,900 tons [52][56] - Aluminum Products: The total production decreased year - on - year, the import increased year - on - year, and the export decreased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In July 2025, the import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%; the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [60] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The production increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 623,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 and a year - on - year increase of 12.41%. The monthly built - in production capacity was 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.25% [63] - Aluminum Alloy: The total production increased, the import decreased, and the export increased. In July 2025, the production was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 10.628 million tons. In July 2025, the import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%; the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3%. From January to July, the import volume was 611,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.83%; the export volume was 145,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.77% [66] Downstream Markets - Real Estate: The market declined slightly. In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from last month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing start - up area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19% [69] - Infrastructure: The investment was favorable. From January to July 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year [72] - Automobile: The production and sales increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [72] Group 5: Option Market Analysis - Strategy Recommendation: Considering the support for the future aluminum price, a double - buy strategy can be considered to bet on the increase in volatility [77]
铝类市场周报：供给稳定需求回升，铝类或将震荡偏强-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 10:07