大越期货菜粕早报-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. It is currently in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but the demand will gradually enter the off - season after the National Day, and there are still variables in the China - Canada trade negotiations [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal futures have returned to oscillation, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuates slightly. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract shows a weak oscillation. The import volume of imported rapeseed remains stable in September, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory has a slight rebound. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuates slightly. The price of aquatic fish has a slight rebound, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [17][19][22]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquatic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain. The global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially the production in Canada is higher than expected. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not large. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on the domestic aquatic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 3rd to 11th, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3049 - 3065 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 7.84 - 39.05 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was mainly 2600 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small. The spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) increased from 2580 yuan/ton on September 3rd to 2620 yuan/ton on September 11th. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28% compared with last week's 2.5 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared with 2.4 million tons in the same period last year [13][15][9]. 5. Position Data - The number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts fluctuated from September 1st to 11th. For example, on September 1st, it was 6041 (-369 compared with the previous day), and on September 11th, it was 10383 (0 compared with the previous day) [16].