芳烃橡胶早报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with the restart of devices, TA de - stocking slows down. The polyester shows no unexpected performance, and with new production in the future, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and as PX supply gradually returns, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees [3]. - For MEG, new devices are put into operation earlier than expected, and the valuation is significantly compressed. With the subsequent increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the far - month, port inventory may gradually accumulate, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the speed of increasing production at the polyester yarn end may slow down due to high finished - product inventory. The staple fiber has a high operating rate due to good spot benefits, with limited inventory pressure, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [4]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Device Changes: Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [3]. - Market Situation: Near - end TA maintenance is over, the operating rate rises, polyester load slightly increases, inventory remains stable, the basis is weak, and the spot processing fee is at a low level. PX domestic operating rate rises, overseas devices restart, PXN remains the same, disproportionation efficiency remains stable while isomerization efficiency weakens, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia remains stable [3]. MEG - Device Changes: Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device restarted, Inner Mongolia Jinyuan's 260,000 - ton device and Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device were under maintenance [4]. - Market Situation: Near - end domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based production slightly increases the load, the overall load rises. Overseas, there are both maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals during the week, port inventory slightly accumulates. Downstream inventory levels rise, the basis weakens, and the efficiency ratio shrinks [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Device Changes: Near - end, Sanfangxiang and Yizheng increased their loads, and the operating rate rose to 94.4% [4]. - Market Situation: The production and sales improved compared with the previous period, and inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the polyester yarn operating rate remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, finished - product inventory decreased, and the efficiency was weak [4]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Price Changes: From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of various types of rubber, including US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, etc., showed different degrees of decline. For example, the US - dollar Thai standard rubber spot price decreased from $1,875 to $1,850 [4]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [4]. Styrene - Price Changes: From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of raw materials and products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene showed certain fluctuations. For example, the CFR China price of styrene decreased from $878 to $870 on September 11 - 12 [7]. - Profit Situation: The domestic profit of styrene remained at a loss, while the domestic profit of EPS increased from 235 to 295 from September 11 - 12 [7].