农产品早报-20250915

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short - term and continue to decline in the long - term due to new season production increase and cost reduction [3] - Starch prices are expected to be reduced in the short - term to clear inventory and remain bearish in the long - term due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [3] - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's high - supply period, and domestic sugar prices face upward pressure with imported sugar arriving [6] - Cotton prices are in a range - bound state, and if there are no major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, with focus on demand changes [9] - Egg prices are affected by factors such as food factory inventory, cold - storage eggs, and seasonal demand, with spot price rebounds being slow and limited [16] - Apple production in the new season may not differ significantly from last year, and consumption is in the off - season with current stable prices, with focus on final production [17] - Pig prices are in a range - bound state, with potential pressure in September, and the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy expectations [17] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Corn/Starch - Price Data: From September 8 - 12, 2025, corn prices in different regions showed little change, with the base difference increasing by 5, and starch base difference increasing by 3 and processing profit remaining unchanged [2] - Market Analysis: In the short - term, new season corn is about to be listed, and demand is weakening, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the influence of increased production and reduced costs. Starch prices are expected to be reduced to clear inventory in the short - term and remain bearish in the long - term [3] Sugar - Price Data: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the spot price in Kunming increased by 5, the base difference increased by 16, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 140 [6] - Market Analysis: International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's high - supply period. Domestic sugar prices follow the international trend, with imported sugar arriving and downward - adjusted processed sugar prices, facing upward pressure [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton remained unchanged, the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 142, and the spot price of cotton yarn decreased by 10 [9] - Market Analysis: Cotton prices are in a range - bound state. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and attention should be paid to demand changes [9] Eggs - Price Data: From September 8 - 12, 2025, egg prices in some regions increased, and the base difference decreased by 109 [16] - Market Analysis: Egg prices were affected by factors such as food factory inventory and cold - storage eggs. In September, prices rebounded due to seasonal demand, but the rebound was limited by high cold - storage egg inventory [16] Apples - Price Data: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national inventory decreased by 77,000 tons [17] - Market Analysis: Apple production in the new season may not differ significantly from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are currently stable. Attention should be paid to the final production situation [17] Pigs - Price Data: From September 8 - 12, 2025, pig prices in some regions showed small changes, and the base difference increased by 15 [17] - Market Analysis: Pig prices are in a range - bound state. There is potential pressure in September, and the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy expectations [17]