LPG早报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With oil prices falling, the PG spot market is weak, and both civil gas and ether - post carbon four prices have declined. The overall market is expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply from incoming resources and a decline in chemical demand, especially with the drop in PDH, alkylation, and MTBE operating rates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - Spot Prices: Civil gas prices in East China are at a low of 4507 (+0), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4550 (-40). Ether - post carbon four is at 4760 (-40). The lowest delivery location is Shandong [1] - Futures Prices: The PG main contract fluctuates strongly. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakens to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1] - External Prices: FEI and CP drop slightly by 2 dollars to 550 and 546 dollars/ton respectively. FEI month - spread is +1, MB month - spread is unchanged, and CP month - spread is -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreases slightly [1] Market Conditions - Inventory: Port and factory inventories increase as inbound shipments decrease, outbound shipments increase slightly, but demand narrows [1] - Demand: Chemical demand drops. PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), with some plants resuming, others under maintenance or reducing loads. Alkylation and MTBE operating rates also decline [1] - Arbitrage and Freight: The US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Freight rates continue to rise, with the US Gulf - Japan at 155 (+11) and the Middle East - Far East at 82 (+7) [1]