集运早报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the October contract, the downside space is limited, and it's recommended to take profit and close positions [1]. - The December contract has a relatively high valuation but has multiple upward drivers (such as shipping companies' multiple price - support measures and main funds' position transfer), so it should be treated with a cautiously bullish mindset [1]. - Since the Spring Festival in 2026 is late (February 17, 2026), the settlement price of the February 2026 contract may be high, and its current valuation is low. The cost - performance of long - allocation for the February contract is higher than that of the December contract. To avoid the potential price - cutting risk of shipping companies in October, a long - short spread strategy for the February - April contracts can be deployed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Data - Contract Prices and Changes: The EC2510 contract closed at 1157.6, down 3.84%; EC2512 at 1610.2, up 0.07%; EC2602 at 1500.8, up 0.23%; EC2604 at 1230.4, down 0.93%; EC2606 at 1410.5, down 1.41% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of EC2510 was 27358, and the open interest was 47611 with a decrease of 1896; for EC2512, the trading volume was 9853, and the open interest was 19637 with an increase of 612; for EC2602, the trading volume was 1680, and the open interest was 6327 with an increase of 326; for EC2604, the trading volume was 966, and the open interest was 7993 with an increase of 202; for EC2606, the trading volume was 155, and the open interest was 997 with an increase of 34 [1]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 452.6, a daily decrease of 47.3 and a weekly decrease of 78.6; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 109.4, a daily decrease of 2.3 and a weekly decrease of 37.0 [1]. Spot Market Data - Shipping Company Quotes: In Week 39, the average quote of shipping companies was 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). The offline quote of YML decreased by 100 to 1550 US dollars, and that of MSC decreased by 150 to 1590 US dollars [1]. - Index Changes: The SCFI (European line) index was 1154 US dollars/TEU, down 12.24%; the CCFI index was 1537.28 points, down 6.19%; the NCFI index was 729.42 points, down 14.78% [1]. Recent European Line Quotation Situation - Currently, downstream customers are booking space for mid - September (Week 37 - 38) [2]. - Week 37: The average quote was 2100 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1900 US dollars (later rising to 1950), PA at 2100 - 2150, and OA at 2100 - 2300 [3]. - Week 38: The average quote was 1800 US dollars (equivalent to 1260 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1700 US dollars (later rising to 1760), PA and MSC at 1800 - 1950, and OA at 1650 - 2020 [3]. - Week 39: The average quote was 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1500 US dollars (later rising to 1560), PA Alliance at 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and OA Alliance at 1540 - 1735 US dollars [3].