大越期货尿素早报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market shows a mixed picture. The overall domestic supply of urea exceeds demand, with high production levels and weak domestic demand, but international prices are strong. The export policy has not been significantly liberalized, and the export profit remains high. The urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price has been oscillating downward recently. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is moderate, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall domestic supply of urea far exceeds demand, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (+20), and the fundamentals are generally bearish [5]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 117, and the premium - discount ratio is 6.6%, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.41 million tons (+0.8), which is bearish [5]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [5]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [5]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to oscillate weakly. International urea prices are strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [5]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10]