大越期货沪铜早报-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises have cut production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.4% in August. The basis is neutral with the spot price at 80990 and a basis of -70, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory situation is neutral, with the copper inventory on September 12th decreasing by 225 to 153950 tons and the SHFE copper inventory increasing by 12203 tons to 94054 tons from last week. The market is bullish as the closing price is above the 20-day moving average which is trending upwards, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. Currently, with the inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining, waiting for the consumption guidance in the peak season of September, the long - short contradiction is not prominent, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate and strengthen [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral; the basis is neutral; the inventory situation is neutral; the market is bullish; the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and strengthen due to inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and waiting for peak - season consumption guidance [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information about the place, mid - price, price change, inventory type, total quantity, and increase or decrease is provided, but specific data is not filled in [6]. Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory increased by 12203 tons to 94054 tons from last week, and on September 12th, the copper inventory decreased by 225 to 153950 tons [2]. Bonded Area Inventory - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - It is expected to be slightly in surplus in 2024 and in tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].