大越期货纯碱早报-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term [2]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level in the same period; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,290 yuan/ton, the basis is - 90 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - Positive factors: The peak overhaul period within the year is approaching, and the output is expected to decline [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, and the industry output is at a historically high level in the same period; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, has been reduced, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Low - End Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,287 yuan/ton | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan | | Current value | 1,290 yuan/ton | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 90 yuan | | Change rate | 0.23% | 0.00% | 3.45% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 5. Soda Ash Production - Production profit: The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process for heavy - quality soda ash is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - Weekly industry operating rate: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.29% [17]. - Weekly output: The weekly output of soda ash is 761,100 tons, including 421,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [19]. - Production capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - Downstream demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 76.01%; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36].