大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250915

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 15, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, with the official PMI at 49.4 in August, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI at 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July [4][7]. - Crude oil prices are fluctuating. Recent events such as Israel's attack on the capital of Qatar have led to renewed turmoil in the Middle East geopolitical situation, and the US, Europe, etc., are planning secondary sanctions on Russian oil [4][7]. - The demand for agricultural films is gradually entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The demand for other packaging films has rebounded [4]. - The downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., has improved [7]. - The LLDPE and PP futures main contracts are expected to fluctuate today [4][7]. Summary by Category LLDPE - Fundamentals: Overall neutral. The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, and the demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weak. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7,180 (-20) [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 11, with a premium ratio of 0.2%, neutral [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 545,000 tons (+35,000), bearish [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4]. - Likely Factors: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [5]. PP - Fundamentals: Overall neutral. The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, and the downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., has improved. The current PP delivery spot price is 6,980 (0) [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 67, with a premium ratio of 1.0%, bullish [7]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 575,000 tons (-8,000), bearish [7]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [7]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [7]. - Likely Factors: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [8]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,319.5 [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,906 [17].