天胶早报-20250915
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-15 02:53

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is decreasing, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The basis is - 870 with a spot price of 14,950, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is running below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The main position has a net short position with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is relatively high [4][6]. - Automobile production and sales are seasonally declining, while tire production reached a new high in the same period but declined month - on - month, and tire industry exports are recovering [23][26][29][32]. - Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on September 12 [8]. - The basis strengthened on September 12 [35]. - Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed slightly recently [14]. - The Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17]. - The import volume has rebounded [20]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - Likely Factors - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resilient spot prices [6]. - Domestic anti - involution [6]. - Bearish Factors - Increasing supply [6]. - Bearish domestic economic indicators [6]. - Trade frictions [6].