PTA、MEG早报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side. For the rebound of the disk, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level. The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operation atmosphere remains cautious [9]. - The average operating load of polyester plants has further increased to 91.3%, up 1 percentage point from the previous week. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start is also slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton plant is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA Daily View - Fundamental: On Friday, next - week's goods were negotiated and traded at a discount of 70 - 75 to the 01 contract, with some at a discount of 80. Goods for the end of September were traded at a discount of 75 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4550 - 4590. October goods were traded at a discount of 50 to the 01 contract. The mainstream spot basis on this day was 01 - 73, showing a neutral situation. - Basis: The spot price was 4565, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 83, indicating that the futures price was at a premium, which was bearish. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory was 3.84 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which was bullish. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish. - Main force position: The net short position increased, which was bearish. - Expectation: Recently, PTA warehouse receipts have continued to flow out, and some mainstream suppliers have sold goods. The liquidity in the spot market is fair, and the spot basis is running weakly. The PTA spot price fluctuates following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream plants [5]. - MEG Daily View - Fundamental: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) was weakly sorted out, and the market negotiation was average. During the night session, MEG opened lower and declined, with few buyers in the market. During the day, the market atmosphere remained weak, and the MEG disk adjusted at a low level. The mainstream spot transactions were carried out at a premium of 98 - 108 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the negotiation was stalemate. In terms of US dollars, the center of the MEG outer market declined weakly, and recent shipments were negotiated at around 514 - 518 US dollars/ton, with some financing merchants participating in inquiries. The domestic and foreign market transaction negotiation ranges were 4368 - 4405 yuan/ton and 514 - 518 US dollars/ton respectively, showing a neutral situation. - Basis: The spot price was 4378, and the basis of the 01 contract was 106, indicating that the futures price was at a discount, which was bullish. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 37.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons compared to the previous period, which was bullish. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish. - Main force position: The main net short position decreased, which was bearish. - Expectation: The arrival volume of MEG last week increased, and it is expected that the visible inventory will moderately rebound at the beginning of next week. During the process of the MEG price center's decline this week, the replenishment enthusiasm of polyester plants was fair. Affected by pre - festival stocking, the port shipments this month will perform well. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of shipments. In the near term, the supply - demand of MEG remains tight, and the basis still has certain support during the delivery period. However, with the advancement of new plant commissioning, the supply - demand in the far - term will turn loose, and the disk will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to plant changes [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production capacity, consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory changes [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including EG production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. - Price - related Data: There are data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and various price spreads (such as TA - EG spot spread, PTA basis, MEG basis, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][21][22][24][28][31][35][38]. - Inventory Analysis: It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fiber products from 2020 - 2025, such as factory - level inventory days and port inventory [40][42][45][46][49]. - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: It shows the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol in the polyester upstream, and polyester plants and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the polyester downstream from 2020 - 2025 [51][55]. - Profit - related Data: It includes the processing fees of PTA, production margins of MEG (from different production methods), and production margins of polyester fiber products from 2022 - 2025 [60][61][64].