氯碱周报：SH：山东区域库存累库，需求整体表现尚可，V：供需格局边际改善，盘面止跌企稳-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Caustic Soda: This week, the caustic soda futures market continued to weaken. After the previous downstream concentrated stockpiling led to a surge in the futures market, the market faced downward pressure after the bullish trading. Next week, there are maintenance plans in the Northwest and Northeast regions, which are expected to cause a decline in the operating rate. The demand from the main alumina enterprises is good, but the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and its price has been showing a downward trend recently. In the short - term, it may continue to operate weakly. Most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - alumina end has entered the peak season with improved demand, but it has limited support for the caustic soda price. Overall, there is a significant inventory build - up in the Shandong region, but the main buyers have a good willingness to purchase, so the spot price may stabilize. Therefore, the decline space of the futures price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of alumina plants and device fluctuations [2]. - PVC: This week, the PVC futures market showed signs of stabilizing and stopping the decline, with the main 01 contract fluctuating within a narrow range. Next week, there are many maintenance enterprises, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. Therefore, the overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. On the cost side, the tight supply of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend. The ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda Period and Spot: The caustic soda futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand expectations, and cost fluctuations. For example, the market worried about the weakening of the marginal supply after the return of supply, and the downstream demand was stable. The far - month supply - demand expectations were poor, and the futures price was looking for a bottom due to factors such as cost reduction, new caustic soda production capacity release, and insufficient medium - term alumina support [5]. - Caustic Soda Profit: The profit of the caustic soda industry is affected by factors such as raw material prices (including well - mine salt, liquid chlorine, etc.) and electricity prices. The sharp decline in the Shandong liquid chlorine price has impacted the enterprise profit, and the industry operating rate has further declined while the demand remains stable [5]. - Caustic Soda Supply: As of this Thursday, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 86.73%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from last week. The Shandong operating rate was 87.35%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points. In terms of inventory, compared with September 3rd, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in the expanded sample enterprises in East China increased by 1.09%, and the inventory in Shandong increased by 16.96% [24]. - Caustic Soda Device Dynamics: There are many caustic soda device maintenance situations in different regions. For example, Inner Mongolia Zhonggu Mining in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and is expected to resume on October 15; Inner Mongolia Yili in the Northwest has been shut down since May 5, 2024, and the restart time is undetermined [25]. - Alumina Impact on Caustic Soda: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is around 10%. It is estimated that the annual alumina output in 2025 will be more than 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects are expected to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [29]. - Caustic Soda Export: In July, the caustic soda export volume reached a high level, but the estimated export profit has weakened compared with the previous period [54]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - PVC Period and Spot: The PVC futures price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, macro - environment, and cost. For example, the lack of positive drivers in supply - demand, combined with a poor commodity atmosphere, has led to a continuous decline in the futures price [61]. - PVC Profit: The profit of the PVC industry has weakened month - on - month. The profit of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China has been affected by factors such as raw material prices and market supply - demand [67]. - PVC Supply: This week, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry has increased, and the maintenance loss this week has decreased month - on - month. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.39%, a 3.21 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 80.29%, a 2.64 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 77.2%, a 4.61 - percentage - point increase month - on - month [83]. - PVC Device Dynamics: There are many PVC device maintenance and shutdown situations in different regions. For example, Julong Chemical in North China has shut down for maintenance since September 20, 2024, and the restart time is undetermined; Ningbo Zhenyang in East China is planned to start operation around September 20 after a temporary shutdown on August 15 [85]. - PVC Downstream Demand: The two main downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure. In addition to demand issues, they also face industry competition, so the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real - estate industry still has a negative impact on PVC demand. According to Xuande sample data, the downstream orders are significantly lower than the same period in the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels, so the PVC downstream is expected to have no positive drivers [93]. - PVC Inventory: The PVC inventory continues to rise, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period [101]. - PVC Outer Market and Export: In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with an average import price of 712 US dollars per ton. The import volume increased by 2.10% month - on - month and 46.98% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume from January to July increased by 6.03% year - on - year. In July 2025, the PVC export volume was 330,600 tons, with an average export price of 606 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 26.17% month - on - month and 112.82% year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January to July increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The domestic trade price has adjusted, and the export windows to Southeast Asia and India have opened, with relatively good weekly export transactions [119].