甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol market is trading on the logic of port pressure传导 to the inland. Inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment, but port backflow will impact inland valuation. Current valuation, inventory, and drivers are not favorable for bottom - fishing, and import variables need attention [2] - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis varies by region, import profit is around - 200 with no further increment. 9 - month maintenance is flat, domestic linear production decreases. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6] - In the polypropylene market, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. Valuation shows a basis of - 60, non - standard price spread is neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and 01 contract may face supply pressure, which can be alleviated by export volume or PDH device maintenance [8] - For PVC, the basis is stable, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, and mid - upstream inventories are accumulating. Q4 should focus on production commissioning and export continuity. Static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, and attention should be paid to export, coal price, etc. [8] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price data from 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12 shows changes in动力煤期货, spot prices in different regions, CFR prices, import profit,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润. There are slight daily changes in some prices, and the盘面MTO利润 increases by 15 [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) - From 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12, data on东北亚乙烯, various polyethylene prices in different regions, import profit,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 are presented. There are daily changes in some prices and inventory data, such as a 30 - unit decrease in华北LL price and a 40 - unit decrease in主力期货 price [6] PP (Polypropylene) - Price and inventory data from 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12 include山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯, various PP prices in different regions, export profit,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单. Some prices change daily, like a 35 - unit decrease in华东PP price and a 26 - unit decrease in主力期货 price [8] PVC - Data from 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12 covers西北电石,山东烧碱, different PVC prices in regions, import美金价,出口利润,综合利润, and基差. There are minor daily changes, such as a 2 - unit decrease in山东烧碱 price [8]