沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The nickel price showed a strong trend last week, but spot trading remained sluggish. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The Shanghai nickel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support from the cost line below [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. The cost line is firm, and inventory continued to decline. The stainless steel 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures Prices: On September 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 121,980 yuan, up 1,360 yuan from the previous day; the London nickel price was 15,380, up 160; the stainless steel main contract was 12,950 yuan, up 80 yuan [11]. - Spot Prices: SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,850 yuan, up 1,400 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,000 yuan, up 1,350 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 122,050 yuan, up 1,350 yuan; nickel beans were 124,200 yuan, up 1,350 yuan. Cold - rolled coil prices in major regions remained unchanged [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, with futures inventory at 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 225,084 tons, an increase of 1,932 tons [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 12, the inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 96,949 tons, a decrease of 605 tons [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On September 12, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 US dollars/wet ton, and Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars/wet ton, both remaining unchanged. High - nickel ferronickel was 953.5 yuan/nickel point, and low - nickel ferronickel was 3,470 yuan/ton, also unchanged [22]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,157 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,563 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,882 yuan [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 123,836 yuan/ton [27]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: There are expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and support from the cost line of 120,000 yuan [6]. - Negative Factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the installed capacity of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [6].