Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - Threaded Steel: The demand shows no sign of improvement, the inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Considering the weak real - estate market, cooling future demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [2]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect. With a positive basis, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. Given the weakening market supply and demand, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [7]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Other Summaries 3.1 Threaded Steel - Fundamentals: Negative due to poor demand, rising inventory, and a weak downstream real - estate industry [2]. - Basis: Positive with a basis of 93 and a spot price of 3220 [2]. - Inventory: Neutral. The inventory in 35 major cities is 487.23 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]. - Disk: Negative as the price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - Main Position: Negative with a net short position and an increase in short positions [2]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Positive factors include low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand [4]. 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Neutral as both supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect [7]. - Basis: Positive with a basis of 36 and a spot price of 3400 [7]. - Inventory: Neutral. The inventory in 33 major cities is 292.44 million tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [7]. - Disk: Neutral as the price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [7]. - Main Position: Negative with a net short position and a decrease in short positions [7]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Positive factors include decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the seasonal off - peak of downstream demand and pessimistic expectations [8][9].
大越期货螺卷早报-20250915
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-15 03:18