大越期货甲醇早报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand logic for domestic methanol is expected to result in regional trends this week, with a generally stronger north and weaker south. Inland, increased olefin demand in production areas leads to a tight supply - demand balance, likely driving prices up. In sales areas, pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream, potential freight rate increases, and traders' reluctance to sell support higher arrival prices, but the reverse flow of port goods may limit price hikes. At ports, reduced future imports due to Iranian plant outages and increased demand from restarted olefin plants and pre - holiday stockpiling are countered by high current inventories, constraining price increases. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 trading between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the fundamental situation shows regional differences. The base price indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures. Inventory has increased in ports. The 20 - day line is downward with the price below it, but the main positions are net long and increasing. The expected price range for this week is 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some domestic plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and port inventories are low. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month. Northwest CTO plants are purchasing external methanol [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants like Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production. There is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE production has declined significantly. Coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling. Some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim remains unchanged at 675 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is at 263 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2313 yuan/ton. CFR Southeast Asia has increased by 3 US dollars/ton to 327 US dollars/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 2379 yuan/ton. The number of registered warehouse receipts has increased by 1152 to 16131, and the valid forecast has decreased by 1500 to 0 [8]. 3.3.2 Spread Data - The basis has increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton. The import spread has increased by 8 yuan/ton to - 66 yuan/ton. Spreads between different regions and markets have also changed, such as the spread between Jiangsu and Shandong decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.3 Operating Rate Data - The national weighted average operating rate has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. Operating rates in different regions have also declined, with Shandong down 2.39% to 68.71%, and Southwest down 1.22% to 44.06% [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory Data - As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports has increased by 122,700 tons to 1.2673 million tons. The total available and tradable inventory in coastal areas has increased by 87,900 tons to 891,500 tons [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Plant Maintenance - Many domestic plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance periods vary, and the weekly maintenance losses also differ, with some plants having long - term outages and others having short - term or planned outages [59]. 3.4.2 Overseas Plant Maintenance - Some overseas plants, especially in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restarted one unit, but it needs verification. Some plants in the US, Malaysia, and other countries also have different operating states, with some having planned outages [60]. 3.4.3 Olefin Plant Maintenance - Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin units have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, expected to last 45 days. Some plants are operating stably, while others have low loads or are in the process of restarting [61].