永安期货：有色早报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in Q3 and Q4 this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, with a small increase in supply and improved downstream开工, 9 - month inventory is expected to decline. Hold at low prices in a low - inventory pattern and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse hedging [1]. - Zinc prices are in a narrow range this week. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate. Short - term unilateral can be used as a short position, and internal - external positive hedging can continue to be held [2]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the geopolitical risk has been alleviated. Continue to pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. The short - term macro - level follows the anti - involution expectation, and pay attention to the news of the Indonesian nickel mine [6]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan. Demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level [7]. - Tin prices are in wide - range fluctuations this week. The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a situation of dual weakness in supply and demand. Short - term observation is recommended, and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [9]. - For industrial silicon, 9 and 10 - month supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom anchored by seasonal marginal costs [13]. - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuate widely this week. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price support is strong during the peak season [15]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The domestic social inventory did not accumulate, and downstream开工 decreased month - on - month. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the internal - external positive hedging has room [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, downstream开工 improved, overseas demand declined significantly, and 9 - month inventory is expected to decline. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and pay attention to demand [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Domestic production TC decreased slightly, and imported TC increased. 9 - month smelting output decreased slightly month - on - month. Domestic social inventory continued to rise, and overseas LME inventory decreased. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate [2]. Nickel - Supply remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased due to warehouse delivery. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the geopolitical risk has been alleviated [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Supply is expected to resume gradually, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is maintained. Fundamentals are weak, and follow the anti - involution expectation in the short - term [6]. Lead - Lead prices rose due to macro - factors this week. Supply is expected to be tight, demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level. Prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week [7]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is short - term tight, demand has limited elasticity, and domestic inventory fluctuates. The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a situation of dual weakness in supply and demand [9]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continued to resume production this week. 9 and 10 - month supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely this week. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly. The current contradiction lies in the supply - side disturbance under the background of over - capacity [15].