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大越期货白糖周报-20250915
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-15 05:33

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main sugar futures contract 01 rebounded briefly this week. With the approaching end of the consumption peak season and average market sales, cheap imported sugar is impacting prices, making it difficult for futures to rise in the short term. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. - International raw sugar is oscillating around 16 cents, and the domestic and international trends are converging. The domestic futures main contract 01 has support around the 5500 mark. After continuous declines, it is expected to consolidate in the range of 5500 - 5600. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positives include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negatives include increased global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the oscillation of foreign sugar prices around 16 cents per pound, and intensified import impact. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The main sugar futures contract 01 rebounded briefly this week. The consumption peak season is approaching its end, market sales are average, and cheap imported sugar is impacting prices, making short - term futures price increases difficult. The ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23.1 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season to be 4060 tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 954.98 tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 74 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 32 tons, and imported 15.98 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 6.85 tons. [5] 3.2 Daily Tips - International raw sugar is oscillating around 16 cents, and the domestic and international trends are converging. The domestic futures main contract 01 has support around the 5500 mark. After continuous declines, it is expected to consolidate in the range of 5500 - 5600. [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. - Negative factors: Increased global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the oscillation of foreign sugar prices around 16 cents per pound, and intensified import impact. [7] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 750 tons, Dataro predicts a surplus of 153 tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 304 tons, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 1.991 billion tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, with a surplus of 1139.7 tons. - In terms of domestic data, as of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 tons, cumulative sales were 954.98 tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 74 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 32 tons, and imported 15.98 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 6.85 tons. [5][9] 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.