棉花周报（9.8-9.12）-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Cotton prices weakened in a volatile manner this week, with the main contract oscillating below 14,000. The start of the "Golden September" was not ideal, leading to a decline in market confidence. There are significant differences in the market during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the textile and clothing export data in August was not satisfactory. With new cotton about to be listed, the hedging pressure has increased [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a reduction in previous Sino - US mutual tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, along with an enhanced expectation for the consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October". Negative factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Cotton prices weakened in a volatile manner this week, with the main contract oscillating below 14,000. The start of the "Golden September" was not ideal, leading to a decline in market confidence. The ICAC September report predicted a 2025/26 annual output of 25.5 million tons and consumption of 25.5 million tons. The USDA September report predicted a 2025/26 annual output of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture predicted a 2025/26 annual output of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [5]. 2. Daily Prompt - During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there are significant differences in the market. The textile and clothing export data in August was not satisfactory. New cotton is about to be listed, increasing the hedging pressure. The main 01 contract fell below 14,000, oscillating within the range of 13,800 - 14,000 during the day [6]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Supply and Demand Forecast (September): In 2025/26, the total global output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [10][11]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 annual, the global output is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically unchanged; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%) [12]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: In 2025/26, the output is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.