大越期货原油早报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil tankers and ports have raised geopolitical concerns, providing short - term support for oil prices. Trump's statement about sanctions on Russia if European countries stop importing Russian oil also boosts oil prices in the short term. However, the medium - to - long - term outlook remains pessimistic as institutional monthly reports warn of crude oil supply surplus in the second half of the year. Short - term oil prices are expected to trade in the 482 - 492 range, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Sino - US talks in Madrid are unlikely to achieve substantial breakthroughs. Ukraine attacked Russia's Primorsk port. The market is certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points this week, but investors have priced in a series of rate cuts until 2026. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [3]. - Basis: On September 12, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.76 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.23 per barrel. The basis was $42.12 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory increased by 1.25 million barrels in the week ending September 5, against an expected decrease of 1.869 million barrels. EIA inventory increased by 3.939 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 1.04 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.365 million barrels in the week ending September 5. As of September 12, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels. Overall, the inventory situation is bearish [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the average, showing a neutral signal [3]. - Main Position: As of September 9, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump said he is ready to impose major sanctions on Russia if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil. He believes this can help end the war and save lives [5]. - The market is certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points this week. However, investors have priced in a series of rate cuts until 2026. The market expects the Fed to convey a dovish tone, but due to inflation and tariff impacts, Fed Chairman Powell and other officials may signal that investors are too radical, which could lead to asset price re - pricing [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil tankers and ports raise geopolitical concerns, and Trump's statement about sanctions on Russia provides short - term support for oil prices [3]. - Bearish Factors: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook for the future, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariffs is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil are $66.99, $62.69, 479.2 yuan, and $68.59 respectively, with changes of $0.62 (0.93%), $0.32 (0.51%), - 9.50 yuan (- 1.94%), and - $2.34 (- 3.30%) compared to the previous values [7]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oils are $67.81, $62.69, $69.76, $63.72, and $69.64 respectively, with changes of $1.40 (2.11%), $0.32 (0.51%), - $1.12 (- 1.58%), - $1.11 (- 1.71%), and - $1.17 (- 1.65%) compared to the previous values [9]. - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventory data show fluctuations. API inventory increased by 1.25 million barrels in the week ending September 5, and EIA inventory increased by 3.939 million barrels in the same period [3][10][13]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of September 9, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 81,844, a decrease of 20,584 compared to the previous period [16]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of September 9, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 209,578, a decrease of 41,476 compared to the previous period [17].