大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - This week, nickel prices showed strong performance, but spot transactions remained sluggish. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices remained stable, and Indonesia's sudden inspection of nickel mines brought positive news to the ore end. Nickel iron prices rose steadily, and the cost line shifted upward. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline, indicating good de - stocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the loading of ternary batteries still decreased, having limited impact on nickel demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will operate in a wide - range shock, while the main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Viewpoints and Strategies - Nickel Viewpoint: Nickel prices were strong this week, but spot transactions were inactive. The long - term oversupply pattern persists. The inspection of nickel mines in Indonesia may introduce uncertainties [8]. - Operation Strategy: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will have a wide - range shock, and the main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - Price Changes in the Industrial Chain: Red soil nickel ore prices remained unchanged, while battery - grade nickel sulfate prices increased by 0.36%. Low - grade nickel iron prices in Shandong rose by 1.45%, and high - grade nickel iron prices rose by 0.53%. Shanghai electrolytic nickel prices increased by 1.19%, and 304 stainless steel prices remained flat [13][14]. - Nickel Ore Market: Nickel ore prices and freight rates were stable. As of September 11, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China increased by 5.96%. In July 2025, nickel ore imports increased by 15.16% month - on - month. This week, nickel ore transactions were mainly wait - and - see. Indonesia's supply was generally loose, but there was news of a sudden inspection on Friday [17]. - Electrolytic Nickel Market: Nickel prices fluctuated strongly, but transactions were sluggish. In the long run, the supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply situation will not change. In August 2025, China's refined nickel production increased by 1.50% month - on - month. LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased [22][23][38]. - Nickel Iron Market: Nickel iron prices rose steadily. In August 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month. In July 2025, nickel iron imports decreased by 19.7% month - on - month. In August, the nickel iron inventory was 218,900 physical tons [43][46][52]. - Stainless Steel Market: The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged. In August, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.3156 million tons. The latest stainless steel imports were 73,000 tons, and exports were 416,300 tons. As of September 12, the national stainless steel inventory decreased by 41,100 tons [58][62][68]. - New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales: In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8%. In August, the total production of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, and the power battery loading was 62.5 GWh, with the ternary battery loading accounting for 17.5% [73][76]. 3.3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. The main force was still dominated by short positions. MACD showed alternating red and green bars, indicating no clear direction. KDJ started to rebound from oversold levels. Overall, the price fluctuated within a small range, mainly in a shock pattern [79]. 3.4. Industrial Chain Summary - The impact of each link on nickel prices: Nickel ore was neutral to bullish, nickel iron was neutral, refined nickel was neutral to bearish, stainless steel was neutral, and new energy was neutral [82]. - Trading strategy: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will operate in a wide - range shock, and the main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [84].