大越期货豆粕早报-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures of the United States are oscillating and rising. After the USDA report on September 9th slightly lowered the yield per unit of US soybeans, the futures are oscillating above the 1000-point mark, waiting for further guidance on the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybean meal is oscillating and falling back. Supported by recent good demand and technical oscillatory consolidation, the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August and the discount of spot prices are suppressing the upward height of the futures. In the short term, it may enter an oscillatory and slightly stronger pattern. The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3040 - 3100 [8]. - Domestic soybeans are oscillating in a narrow range, driven by US soybeans and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the futures. In the short term, it is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3900 - 4000 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - producing areas, the US futures are oscillating and rising under the influence of relatively positive data from the USDA report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in August, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. With the weather of US soybeans and China - US trade negotiations entering a critical period, affected by the relatively positive data from the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price expectation of soybean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern within a range [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal is oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and further guidance on the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low current inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal; variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in September; the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing the price expectation of beans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet: from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated between 17.69% - 23.05% [32]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet: from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans showed certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was between 18.41% - 23.79% [33]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.