原油周评：超级央行周来临，地缘加剧油价波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although they were initially driven up by geopolitical factors, they dropped significantly after the release of US inflation data. Currently, the supply side in the commodity attribute remains loose due to OPEC+ production increases, and the consumption side has poor expectations due to weak US economic data. This combination makes it difficult to boost oil prices. Financially, the expected 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut this week may not significantly lift commodity prices. Politically, geopolitical conflicts centered around Israel are intense, which may further amplify short - term oil price fluctuations. Overall, oil prices may remain high in the short term with some upward potential, but will face pressure in the long term [70]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices first rose due to geopolitical factors, then回调 on Thursday due to US inflation data, and recovered over the weekend. This week, oil prices are expected to be more volatile under the influence of major economies' interest rate decisions and geopolitical factors, with some upward potential. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 460 - 510 yuan/barrel. Short - term investors can take a cautiously bullish approach, while a bearish view is advisable for the long term [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices rose in the first half due to Middle East geopolitical tensions. On Thursday, they dropped sharply due to the impact of higher - than - expected US CPI data and market pessimism about future consumption. Over the weekend, they rebounded due to geopolitical factors and news of Western sanctions on Russia [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Factors - Fed Rate Cut: The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this Thursday, with a 7% chance of a 50 - basis - point cut. There is a higher probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year. However, institutions are pessimistic about the Fed's rate - cut motives and the post - cut economic situation, so the rate cut may have limited impact on commodity prices [25]. - Super Central Bank Week: This week is a super central bank week. The Bank of England is expected to keep the interest rate at 4.0%, with the focus on signals about future rate cuts. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Wednesday due to a weak job market, concerns about US trade tariffs, and controllable inflation. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the previous rate decision [28]. - Geopolitical Fluctuations: Last week, Israel's attacks on multiple countries in the Middle East and NATO's actions in Poland, along with Ukraine's call for new sanctions on Russia, have increased market concerns about geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and affected confidence in Russian oil exports [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - OPEC+ Production Increase: OPEC+ increased production in August. OPEC's production rose from 27.47 million barrels in July to 27.948 million barrels in August, an increase of 478,000 barrels. The total OPEC+ production increased by 509,000 barrels from 41.891 million barrels to 42.4 million barrels [36]. - Saudi Price Cut: Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asian markets by $1/barrel in October, which is seen as an attempt to grab market share and may lead to more determined OPEC+ production increases [38]. - Continuous Production Increase by Saudi and Russia: Saudi Arabia and Russia have been increasing production, which contributes to the supply - side expansion [41]. - Iraq's Production Recovery: Iraq's oil production has been recovering [44]. - Stable US Production Recovery: US oil production has been steadily recovering [47]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - Slight Improvement in Consumption Expectations: OPEC maintains its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 105.14 million barrels per day. The IEA raises its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and the demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. However, the market still faces a high supply - surplus situation [50]. - Weak Manufacturing in China and the US: The manufacturing PMIs in China and the US have not shown significant improvement, which may limit oil demand [53]. - Shift to Diesel Production: The market is shifting towards diesel production, with gasoline consumption declining and diesel consumption expected to increase [58]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - Continuous Crude Oil Inventory Build - up: US API and EIA crude oil inventories increased in the week ending September 5, exceeding market expectations of inventory reduction. This is due to higher - than - expected US production and lower - than - expected exports, and the situation may not improve with OPEC+ production increases and Saudi price cuts [60]. - Weak Gasoline Production: US gasoline inventory increased in the week ending September 5, while refined oil inventory also rose. The market is in a seasonal phase of reducing gasoline production and increasing diesel production, which may support fuel oil prices [64]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Short - term oil prices may remain high with some upward potential, but long - term prices are under pressure due to supply - side expansion, weak consumption expectations, limited impact of the Fed rate cut, and intense geopolitical conflicts [70].