Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery is at a low level and cost support has weakened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, the short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch due to capacity mismatch is difficult to change [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 219,000 tons (low), silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons (high), with a production profit of - 82 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive operating rate of 72.71% (unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 70,800 tons (high), with an import loss of 140 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is 55.5%, a 0.36% increase from the previous week (low) [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 255 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 539,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,950 tons, a 1.84% increase; and the inventory of major ports is 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [7]. - Expectation: The supply - side production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [7]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is predicted to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 165,500 tons, a 1.78% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. In August, battery cell production was 58.27GW, a 0.13% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of external - sales battery cell factories was 4.62GW, a 40.84% decrease. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 60.04GW, a 3.03% increase. In August, component production was 49.2GW, a 4.45% increase from the previous month, and the expected production for September is 50.3GW, a 2.23% increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 12, the price of N - type dense material was 50,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2060 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase from the previous week, and it is at a historical low [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [9]. - Expectation: The short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts show various changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 - contract price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China is 9095 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the previous value [15]. - Inventory data shows that most inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, have increased to varying degrees [15]. Polysilicon - The prices of various types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the daily price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers (130μm) is 1.28 yuan/piece, unchanged from the previous value [17]. - The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends. For example, the weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease [17]. 3. Price and Basis Trends - The price and basis trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented through charts, showing historical price changes and the relationship between spot and futures prices [19][23]. 4. Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon inventory includes交割库及港口库存, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipts, all of which show certain trends of change over time [26]. - Polysilicon inventory also shows different trends, with the total inventory showing a certain increase [17]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions, such as Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, show different trends over time [28][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also shows different trends [29]. 6. Cost Trends - The cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, such as Sichuan 421, Yunnan 421, and Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553, are presented through charts [36]. 7. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon show the relationship between production, import, export, consumption, and balance over different time periods [38][41]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon also shows the relationship between supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [66]. 8. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products, such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4, are presented [44][46][50]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, production, and operating rate trends of aluminum alloy, as well as the demand trends in the automotive and wheel - hub industries, are presented [53][56][57]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon, as well as the trends of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, and component cost - profit, are presented [63][66][69]
工业硅期货早报-20250915
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-15 06:34