大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. - The cost of lithium carbonate production from some sources shows a downward trend, while the demand is expected to strengthen in the next month, and the inventory may be depleted [9]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,800 - 72,520 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the output was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 73,410 yuan/ton, a 0.18% daily decrease, with a loss of 2,019 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 76,792 yuan/ton, a 0.74% daily decrease, with a loss of 7,378 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production income is negative. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [9]. - Other aspects: The basis on September 12 shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract is 1,290 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory is 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closes below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position decreases [9]. - Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the lack of willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate is 66.41%, unchanged from the previous value. The daily production cost of spodumene is 73,410 yuan/ton, a 0.19% decrease. The monthly processing cost of spodumene is 20,700 yuan/ton, a 4.49% increase. The daily production profit of spodumene is - 2,019 yuan/ton, a 14.65% decrease. The daily production cost of lithium mica is 76,792 yuan/ton, a 0.74% decrease. The monthly processing cost of lithium mica is 35,460 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase. The daily production profit of lithium mica is - 7,378 yuan/ton, a 2.45% increase. The monthly total output of lithium carbonate is 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate is 576,138 tons, a 34.73% increase [18]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is 62%, a 5% increase. The monthly output is 316,400 tons, an 8.84% increase. The monthly export volume of lithium iron phosphate is 2,741,411 kg, a 34.94% increase. The weekly inventory is 95,442 tons, a 0.72% increase. The monthly output of ternary precursors shows different growth rates for different types. The monthly output of ternary materials also shows different growth rates for different types. The monthly power battery loading volume is 62,500 GWh, an 11.81% increase [18].