大越期货沥青期货早报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure. Next week, supply pressure may further decrease [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - The basis shows that on September 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 162 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - Regarding inventory, social inventory and in - plant inventory are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the November contract price closed below the MA20 [9]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3346 - 3390 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments, production, and device maintenance volume changed accordingly, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane opening rates are all in a state of being lower than the historical average, with some showing a downward trend [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On September 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 162 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish factor [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 1225,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. In - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and in - plant inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing, which is a bullish factor [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the November contract price closed below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. - Expectation: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3346 - 3390 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the asphalt market on September 12, including current values, previous values, price changes, and price change percentages of different contracts, heavy - traffic asphalt market mainstream prices, registered warehouse receipts, basis, downstream demand opening rates, asphalt coking profit differences, weekly shipments, weekly production and loss amounts, weekly opening rates, and weekly inventories [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is helpful for spread trading analysis [21][22]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [27][28][29]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative price relationship among these commodities [31][33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The historical price trend of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps to understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34][35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - Profit Analysis - Coking Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profit difference between the two production processes [39][40][41]. - Supply - Side - Shipment Volume: The historical trend of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the supply - side shipment situation [42][43]. - Supply - Side - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of diluted asphalt at ports [44][45]. - Supply - Side - Production Volume: The historical trends of weekly and monthly production volumes from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the overall production situation of asphalt [47][48]. - Supply - Side - Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which helps to analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [51][53]. - Supply - Side - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the production situation of local refineries [54][55]. - Supply - Side - Opening Rate: The historical trend of the weekly opening rate from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [57][58]. - Supply - Side - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The historical trend of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the impact of enterprise maintenance on production [59][60]. - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: The historical trend of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [62][63][64]. - Inventory - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the spot market [66][67]. - Inventory - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of enterprises [69][70]. - Import and Export Situation: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [72][73]. - Demand - Side - Petroleum Coke Production: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand situation in related fields [78][79]. - Demand - Side - Apparent Consumption: The historical trend of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the overall market demand for asphalt [81][82]. - Demand - Side - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation: The historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [84][85]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate: The historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the impact of government investment on asphalt demand [86]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [88][89][91]. - Demand - Side - Asphalt Opening Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Opening Rate: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt opening rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [93][94]. - Asphalt Opening Rate by Use: The historical trends of the building asphalt and modified asphalt opening rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [96][97]. - Demand - Side - Downstream Opening Situation: The historical trends of the opening rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [99][100][102]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104][105].