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贵金属日评-20250915
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-15 07:32

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the inflation in the US in September met market expectations, clearing the last obstacle for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process in September. The expectation of Fed's interest - rate cut has pushed up the US stock market, which has partially weakened the safe - haven demand for gold. However, the expectation of improved industrial demand brought by the Fed's interest - rate cut has led to the upward movement of precious metals. Gold has started a new upward trend, and this trend may continue until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - bias trading strategy, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. Silver, with its strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price and may even outperform gold in terms of gains due to its high volatility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - Intraday Market: London gold is trading strongly above $3600 per ounce, and London silver has broken through the $42 per ounce mark. The gold price had a sideways shock from late April to August to digest the high - valuation pressure. With the Fed's interest - rate cut, the gold price broke through the resistance in early September and started a new upward trend [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Market: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 837.07, up 0.45%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 10,066, up 2.41%; Gold T + D closed at 830.30, up 0.51%; Silver T + D closed at 10,039, up 2.73% [5]. - Medium - term Market: From late April to early August, London gold fluctuated widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce to digest the high - valuation pressure. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process. Geopolitical risks also provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, various factors jointly pushed the gold price to break through the $3500 per ounce mark, starting a new upward trend that may last until the spring and summer of 2026 [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US Economic Data: In August, the US consumer price had the largest increase in seven months, mainly due to rising housing and food costs. However, the number of initial jobless claims surged last week, and the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates next Wednesday. The CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year in August, both being the largest increases since January. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year in August, consistent with the July increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 6 increased by 27,000, reaching 263,000 after seasonal adjustment, the highest since October 2021 [17]. - European Central Bank: The ECB maintained interest rates as expected and was optimistic about growth and inflation, which curbed the market's expectation of further borrowing - cost cuts. ECB President Lagarde said that economic risks were "more balanced" than in June, but the inflation outlook was still more uncertain than usual. The ECB currently expects the inflation rate to be 1.9% in 2027, lower than the 2.0% forecast in June, and the core inflation rate to be 1.8%, also lower than the 2% target [17]. - Trade - related News: The US will pressure the G7 to raise tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil. The US Commerce Secretary said that the US could reach a trade agreement with India if India stops buying Russian oil [18]. - US Treasury Budget: In August, the US budget deficit decreased by $35 billion or 9% year - on - year to $345 billion, as Trump's tariffs boosted net tariff revenues by about $22.5 billion. The cumulative deficit for the fiscal year as of August increased by $76 billion or 4% to $1.973 trillion, the third - highest in history [18].