大越期货PVC期货早报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4846 - 4906. The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods is weakening, and the overall cost is also weakening. The inventory is at a high level, and the production scheduling may face pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and export trends [6][9][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: The fundamentals are bearish. In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a 0.01 - percentage - point increase. The calcium carbide method production was 327,885 tons, a 0.68% month - on - month decrease, and the ethylene method production was 134,060 tons, a 7.11% month - on - month increase. The downstream overall start - up rate was 43.5%, a 0.899 - percentage - point increase, but still lower than the historical average. The calcium carbide method profit was - 420.96 yuan/ton, a 5.40% increase in losses, and the ethylene method profit was - 670.97 yuan/ton, a 6.80% increase in losses, both lower than the historical average [6][8] - Basis: On September 12, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 126 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [11] - Inventory: The in - factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a 1.17% month - on - month increase. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a 3.77% month - on - month increase, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a 7.85% month - on - month decrease. The social inventory was 533,000 tons, a 2.12% month - on - month increase. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.2 days, a 0.95% month - on - month decrease, which is bearish [11] - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [11] - Main positions: The net position of the main players was short, and the short positions decreased [11] - Leverage factors: Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The document provides yesterday's PVC market overview, including various prices, spreads, start - up rates, and inventory data [16][17] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis trend: Presents the historical basis trend of PVC futures [19][20] - Market analysis: Displays the price, trading volume, and position trends of PVC futures in 2025 [23] - Spread analysis: Shows the historical spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts [26] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium carbide method - related products: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, and inventory of products such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [28][31][33][36] - PVC supply trend: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, production, and maintenance volume of PVC production by calcium carbide and ethylene methods [40][42] - Demand trend: Analyzes the trading volume, pre - sales volume, apparent consumption, start - up rate of downstream products, and related macro - economic indicators of PVC [44][45][51][53] - Inventory situation: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory - to - production days of PVC [55][56] - Ethylene method: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and related price spreads in the ethylene method [57][58] - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC in 2024 and 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [60][61]