Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, urea prices have been continuously falling due to weak domestic demand during the agricultural off - season and lower - than - expected participation in Indian tenders and tender prices, which has weakened speculative sentiment. - Supply pressure has slightly eased as daily urea production has declined, but it remains at a high level compared to the same period. In mid - to - late September, the restart of previously overhauled plants may push daily production back to a high level. - On the demand side, agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and the main growth points in the future are the phased procurement demand for autumn wheat base fertilizer and off - season reserves by storage enterprises. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants may continue to rise, but insufficient downstream procurement may limit their production enthusiasm. The melamine industry has many restarted plants, but terminal demand is still weak. Export performance is below expectations, and export disruptions will weaken after the export window closes. - Overall, the urea supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and prices remain under pressure. However, the current price is low, and with the support of autumn wheat base fertilizer and off - season reserve demand, the room for further decline may be limited [2][24][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Urea futures broke through the previous oscillation range last week, with the urea 2601 contract closing at 1,663 yuan/ton on September 12, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton or 3.67% from the end of August. The main reasons are weak demand during the agricultural off - season in mid - to - early September, lower - than - expected Indian tenders, and production restrictions of compound fertilizer plants around the military parade. - The spot market is also weak. On September 12, the mainstream prices of small - particle urea in various regions decreased compared to the end of August, with downstream procurement being cautious, poor new order transactions, and slower shipment speeds. - International urea prices have also fallen. For example, the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Middle East decreased by 55 US dollars/ton from the end of August, and the decrease in the lowest bid in the Indian NFL tender on September 2 has put downward pressure on international prices [6][9]. 3.2 Supply Side - Recently, the number of overhauled urea plants in China has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Although the daily output has dropped to 18 - 190,000 tons/day, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. On September 12, the national urea plant capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, a decrease of 3.05 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 185,600 tons, a decrease of 714,200 tons from the end of August. - By process, the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea plants was 81.47%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 146,100 tons, a decrease of 651,300 tons from the end of August. The capacity utilization rate of natural - gas - based urea plants was 72.34%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 39,500 tons, a decrease of 62,900 tons from the end of August. - Most of the changed plants during the statistical period were coal - based plants. Some plants in Henan and Shanxi started overhauls in early September, and some have since resumed. After mid - September, previously overhauled plants such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Jinfeng will also resume, and it is expected that the daily output will rise above 190,000 tons, with overall supply remaining relatively abundant [10][11]. 3.3 Demand Side - Agricultural demand is progressing slowly. In mid - to - early September, it is in the agricultural off - season, and downstream dealers are cautious in procurement, with only small - scale low - price stockpiling. The next stage of agricultural demand is the autumn sowing base fertilizer for wheat from late September to mid - October, but the start is slow. - In terms of industrial demand, after the military parade, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has rebounded but is still at a low level compared to the same period. On September 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants was 37.82%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the end of August, and the inventory of compound fertilizer manufacturers was 826,200 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the end of August. - The capacity utilization rate of melamine plants is 55.38%, a decrease of 3.12 percentage points from the end of August, and the output is 27,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the end of August. Terminal demand is weak, and the support for the urea market is limited. - On September 2, the Indian NFL urea import tender had a planned tender volume of 2 million tons, with a final winning bid volume of about 2.03 million tons and a winning bid price of about 460 US dollars/ton CFR, a significant drop of about 70 US dollars/ton from the August tender. After September, the domestic autumn fertilizer use and off - season reserves will start, and the export window may gradually close [13][14][16][18]. 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the in - plant inventory of urea production enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the end of August and an increase of 382,800 tons year - on - year, with continuous inventory accumulation for five weeks. The port inventory was 549,400 tons, a decrease of 50,600 tons from the end of August but an increase of 336,400 tons year - on - year. Although daily production has declined and some manufacturers have export orders, the weak terminal demand makes it difficult to change the situation of inventory accumulation, and price cuts to attract orders have limited effects [19]. 3.5 Cost Side - As urea prices fall, the profits of different production methods have shrunk or losses have widened. The production profit of the coal - water slurry gasification method is 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of the fixed - bed method is - 217 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; and the production profit of the natural - gas method is - 185 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. - Last week, domestic coal prices stopped falling, and some coal prices rebounded. The port market atmosphere improved, but the actual transaction volume was limited. The coal supply has increased as previously restricted mines have resumed production, and the power plant's coal consumption has decreased seasonally after the "peak summer" period. With sufficient inventory, the coal price lacks the impetus for continuous rise [22].
供强需弱改善有限，尿素价格承压
Chang An Qi Huo·2025-09-15 08:10