大越期货菜粕早报-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2500 - 2560. It is currently in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The market is waiting for further development [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain, pending further clarification of China - Canada trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian rapeseed production higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the small probability of a settlement in the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price is 2600, with a basis of 69, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a bullish signal [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.8 tons, down 28% week - on - week from 2.5 tons last week and 25% year - on - year from 2.4 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market Trends: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. - Trading Data: From September 4th to 12th, the average trading price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated, and the spot price remained relatively stable. The spot premium slightly expanded. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level [13][15][18]. - Warehouse Receipts: From September 2nd to 12th, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts changed, with an increase on some days and a decrease on others, and remained stable from September 11th to 12th [16][17]. - Aquatic Product Data: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, which is a bearish signal [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2500 - 2560. It is currently in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The market is waiting for further development [9].