Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, supply is gradually increasing, with strong raw - material purchase prices due to high demand from processing plants. In Hainan, local rainfall disrupts tapping, slowing the seasonal increase of new rubber supply. Factories are less enthusiastic about high - priced raw - material procurement due to orders and profit concerns [2]. - Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, with a slightly narrower decline than the previous period. The de - stocking of bonded warehouses exceeded expectations, while general trade warehouses had a slight inventory increase. As downstream enterprises mainly replenish standard rubber, the pick - up volume from bonded warehouses increased, and there is an expectation of de - stocking in general trade warehouses in the short term [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises significantly increased as enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month mostly resumed normal operations. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the National Day holiday and make up for previous order shortages. The overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,850 - 16,300, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 - 13,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 17,520 yuan/ton, and the main 20 - number rubber contract was 15,995 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was 15 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 5 yuan/ton. The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 147,594 lots, an increase of 570 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 68,965 lots, a decrease of 907 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was 4,595 lots, and that of 20 - number rubber was 971 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 149,320 tons, a decrease of 2,420 tons; those of 20 - number rubber were 46,166 tons, an increase of 202 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,860 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was also 1,860 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheet was 60.17 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.62 Thai baht/kg; the reference price of Thai raw rubber film was 58.3 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.15 Thai baht/kg; the reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 56.2 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was - 52.6 US dollars/ton, and that of STR20 was 158.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 0.1 million tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 25.95 million tons, a decrease of 2.13 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 73.46%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.59%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 45.94 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 38.83 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 5.806 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 1.57%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 19.16%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.35%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.34%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 14th to 20th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall was concentrated in southern Thailand and south - western Cambodia, affecting tapping; in the southern hemisphere, heavy rainfall was in central and southeastern Indonesia, with less impact on tapping [2]. - As of September 14th, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95%. The bonded area inventory was 66,200 tons, a decrease of 8.32%; the general trade inventory was 520,400 tons, an increase of 0.07% [2]. - As of September 11th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250915
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-15 10:57