Workflow
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250915
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-15 10:57

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - A-shares' major indices mostly closed higher, with the market entering the macro data verification phase during the performance and policy vacuum period. August economic data remained under pressure, with real estate significantly dragging down fixed - asset investment and the marginal weakening of the trade - in policy pressuring social retail. However, previous financial data indicated a shift from excess savings to increased consumption, and the Fed's potential rate cut would provide room for domestic policy easing. Therefore, stock indices still have long - term upward potential, but poor economic data short - term pressures the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Contracts Prices: IF main contract (2509) was at 4527.8 (+2.0↑), IC main contract (2509) at 7114.2 (-38.2↓), IH main contract (2509) at 2962.4 (-7.4↓), IM main contract (2509) at 7368.6 (-32.2↓) [2] - Futures Spreads: IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1565.4 (+10.8↑), IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2586.4 (-30.4↓) [2] - Futures Seasonal Spreads: IF current - season minus current - month was -30.8 (-4.6↓), IH current - season minus current - month was 0.2 (-0.6↓), IC current - season minus current - month was -174.8 (-23.6↓), IM current - season minus current - month was -225.4 (-6.2↓) [2] - Futures Net Positions: IF top 20 net positions were -28,938.00 (-1367.0↓), IH top 20 net positions were -18,383.00 (+136.0↑), IC top 20 net positions were -25,779.00 (+937.0↑), IM top 20 net positions were -47,196.00 (+58.0↑) [2] 3.2 Spot Market Data - Underlying Index Prices: CSI 300 was at 4533.06 (+11.1↑), SSE 50 was at 2962.6 (-5.9↓), CSI 500 was at 7137.4 (-10.4↓), CSI 1000 was at 7415.6 (-7.3↓) [2] - Basis: IF main contract basis was -5.3 (-6.5↓), IH main contract basis was -0.2 (-0.3↓), IC main contract basis was -23.2 (-15.4↓), IM main contract basis was -47.0 (-16.9↓) [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment Data - Trading Volume and Balance: A - share trading volume (daily) was 23,031.80 billion yuan (-2451.32↓), margin trading balance (previous trading day) was 23,515.70 billion yuan (+111.45↑), north - bound trading volume (previous trading day) was 3112.83 billion yuan (-39.84↓) [2] - Other Indicators: The proportion of rising stocks (daily) was 35.28% (-0.22↓), Shibor (daily) was 1.408% (+0.041↑), IO at - the - money call option closing price (2509) was 29.00 (-3.00↓), IO at - the - money put option closing price (2509) was 51.20 (-5.40↓) [2] 3.4 Industry News - Economic Data: In August, the year - on - year actual growth of above - scale industrial added value was 5.2% (expected 5.7%, previous 5.7%); social consumer goods retail sales were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% (expected 3.8%, previous 3.7%); from January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, with private fixed - asset investment down 2.3% year - on - year; from January to August, real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, down 12.9% year - on - year; in August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Market Performance: A - share major indices closed with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets significantly declined, and over 3300 stocks fell. Overseas, the US August PPI unexpectedly turned negative month - on - month, which supported the Fed's September rate cut [2] 3.5 Key Data to Watch - September 16, 20:30: US August import and export price indices, retail sales, and core retail sales - September 18, 2:00: Fed interest rate decision - September 18, 19:00: Bank of England interest rate decision - September 19, 10:47: Bank of Japan interest rate decision [3]