Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term long positions as the main strategy [2] Core Viewpoints - In the old - crop market, as of September 11, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 20.91 million tons, a decrease of 6.44 million tons from the previous week, with slightly faster inventory clearance. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong decreased by 1.13% to 4.33%, and in Shaanxi decreased by 0.32% to 0.21%. Some merchants in Shandong continued to transfer stored Fuji apples due to the high price of early - maturing Fuji and poor coloration of Red General apples, with relatively stable prices. The digestion speed in the sales areas was relatively stable, and the profit of merchants was relatively limited due to the high price of early - maturing Fuji. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation for the Double Festival [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 8304 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 90526 lots, an increase of 4663 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 2963 lots, a decrease of 3258 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia remained unchanged. The prices were 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China was 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples was 9.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg, and that of Fuji apples was 9.38 yuan/kg, unchanged. The total cold - storage inventory of apples in China was 20.91 million tons, a decrease of 6.44 million tons. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi were 4.33% and 0.21% respectively, with changes of - 1.13% and - 0.01%. The monthly export volume of apples was 50000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts was 6328.4 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples was 1589295.5 million US dollars, a decrease of 153306.5 million US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale prices of mandarins, bananas, and watermelons were 8.74 yuan/kg, 5.58 yuan/kg, and 3.62 yuan/kg respectively. The early - morning average daily arrival vehicle numbers at Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets were 12, 16, and 25.56 respectively, with changes of 0.4, 1, and 1.96 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options on apples was 20.41%, with a change of 0.04% and 0.06% respectively [2] Industry News - In the western production areas, the trading of early - maturing Fuji was coming to an end, with good - quality goods hard to find, and the actual transaction prices were chaotic due to quality issues. The bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji was generally postponed this year. In Shandong, there was not much good - quality stored Fuji left, and the sales of poor - quality goods were slow. The coloration of Red General apples was poor, and the transaction prices were not high. The supply of mid - maturing Fuji was gradually increasing, and the color and redness of some Fuji apples in the west were average due to short sunshine hours and long rainfall. The price of good - quality goods remained firm [2]
苹果产业日报-20250915
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-15 10:51