钢矿周报：旺季及长假特征或更趋明显叠加稳增长政策或加码发力，钢矿期价或震荡偏强-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Both steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate with a bullish bias. For steel, although the terminal demand in August was under pressure, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics may become more obvious in mid - to late September, and the replenishment demand before the National Day holiday may be released. The strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment policies may also support the demand. For iron ore, despite the long - term pressure on demand due to the upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan, the short - term demand may remain resilient due to the peak season and policy support [1][2][3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Production, Sales, and Inventory Changes Lead to Differentiated Performance of Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices - Last week, affected by fundamental production, sales, and inventory changes, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts showed differentiation. The futures price of the rebar main contract fluctuated weakly, down 0.51% for the week, while the futures prices of hot - rolled coil and iron ore main contracts fluctuated strongly, up 0.72% and 1.27% respectively for the week. The decline of rebar was due to weak consumption and inventory accumulation, while the rise of hot - rolled coil was due to increased consumption and inventory destocking. The rise of iron ore was supported by tight supply caused by a sharp drop in overseas ore shipments and increased demand from the resumption of production of steel mills in North China [4]. 2. The Pressure of Inventory Accumulation of Steel and Iron Ore May Be Limited Due to the Improvement of Supply - Demand, Peak Season Characteristics, and Policy Support (1) Steel: The Peak Season and Holiday Characteristics Become More Obvious, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Futures Prices - Terminal demand may be supported: Although the terminal demand for steel in August was under pressure, in mid - to late September, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics may become more obvious, and the replenishment demand before the National Day holiday may be released. The strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment policies, such as the possible restart of Fed rate cuts, the adequacy of fiscal policy space, and the implementation of relevant policies, may support the demand for steel [10][11]. - Steel production may be under pressure: Although the profitability of steel mills is in doubt and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the improvement of steel mill profits still faces challenges due to the uncertain terminal demand and supply disturbances of raw materials. The upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan may also put pressure on steel production, especially for building materials [22][23]. - The pressure of inventory accumulation of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be limited: Although the terminal demand in August was under pressure and the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline last week, the peak season characteristics and policy support may lead to marginal improvement in demand, and the overall inventory accumulation pressure of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be limited [37]. (2) Iron Ore: Steel Mill Profits Are Still Supported, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Futures Prices - Iron ore demand may be resilient in the short term but under pressure in the long term: Although the upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan may suppress iron ore demand in the long term, in the short term, the peak season characteristics, the release of replenishment demand before the National Day holiday, and policy support may keep the iron ore demand resilient. However, the uncertain terminal demand and supply disturbances of raw materials may still pose challenges to steel mill profits and iron ore demand [40][42]. - The pressure of tight supply of iron ore may be limited: Overseas ore shipments are entering the peak season, and the new production capacity of overseas mines and domestic "Cornerstone Plan" may increase the supply of iron ore, so the pressure of tight supply may be limited [48]. - The short - term inventory accumulation of iron ore ports may be limited: Although there is long - term pressure on iron ore demand and inventory accumulation, the short - term demand may remain resilient due to the peak season and policy support, so the short - term inventory accumulation amplitude of iron ore ports may be limited [53]. 3. The Peak Season and Holiday Characteristics Become More Obvious, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices - Steel: The futures price may fluctuate with a bullish bias. Steel producers and traders with high inventory levels are advised to speed up the sales rhythm, while traders with low inventory levels and downstream and terminal procurement enterprises can slow down the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market. Investors are advised to take short - term long positions on dips, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [55][56]. - Iron Ore: The futures price may fluctuate with a bullish bias. Steel mills or traders with low inventory levels are advised to slow down the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market, while traders with high inventory levels can speed up the sales rhythm. Investors are advised to use a range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [57].