Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The fundamentals of gold remain strong. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut weakens the US dollar, boosts the demand for gold from non - US currency holders. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases, geopolitical risks, the long - term de - dollarization trend, and policy - game uncertainties support the upward movement of gold prices. The exchange - rate factor amplifies the domestic increase, and SHFE gold performs better than international gold [3]. - Copper: In the next week, copper prices may remain at 81,000 yuan per ton. The impact of monetary policy on copper prices may decrease as investors have consistent expectations for the Fed's September and October interest - rate decisions. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with the tight supply problem remaining unresolved in the short term and demand remaining weak. Overall, copper prices will be in a volatile state [18]. - Aluminum: Last week, SHFE aluminum prices rose significantly, mainly due to the strengthening expectation of interest - rate cuts and the improvement of fundamentals. However, at high prices, the downstream's willingness to accept goods is weak, and it is uncertain whether the inventory - reduction inflection point has arrived. In the future, inventory will be an important factor determining aluminum prices. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus, and its price may be weak in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy may be volatile and strong, and the subsequent focus is on the supply of scrap aluminum [37][38][39]. - Zinc: The supply of zinc is in a surplus state. The price advantage of domestic zinc ore is obvious, and overseas zinc ore is in a loose situation. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the LME inventory is continuously decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the short term, zinc prices will be volatile [64]. - Nickel: The takeover of some nickel mines in Indonesia by the forestry working group has caused concerns about supply. The benchmark price of nickel ore in September has declined, but the premium is firm. The supply of nickel salt is tight, and the price of nickel iron is stable and strong. Stainless steel has limited downward space due to cost support, but high - price transactions are weak [80]. - Tin: The impact of monetary policy on tin prices may decrease. The short - term pattern of tight supply in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on prices. Tin prices may continue to fluctuate [95]. - Lithium Carbonate: Policy support is expected to extend the peak - season cycle of the new - energy industry to the end of the year. If the downstream material enterprises experience a prosperous market after the "National Day" holiday, the current restocking demand may last until the end of the year. The downside space of lithium - carbonate spot prices is limited [106]. - Silicon: The market of industrial silicon is characterized by "strong expectation and weak reality". The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may be volatile and weak in the short term. The polysilicon market is under pressure, with increasing supply and inventory, but the policy expectation is strong, and it may be in a state of shock adjustment [115]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price - influencing factors: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, global central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and de - dollarization trend support gold prices [3]. - Market performance: SHFE gold performs better than international gold due to exchange - rate factors [3]. Copper - Price forecast: Remain at 81,000 yuan per ton in the next week, with the impact of monetary policy decreasing and a volatile trend [18]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, import and export data, and inventory data are presented in detail, showing the current supply - demand situation and price trends [18][23][33]. Aluminum - Aluminum: Rose last week, but downstream acceptance is weak at high prices, and inventory is a key factor for future price trends [37]. - Alumina: In a supply - surplus state, with prices likely to be weak in the short term [38]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: May be volatile and strong, with scrap - aluminum supply being the focus [39]. Zinc - Supply - demand situation: Supply is in surplus, and demand for the peak season is generally expected. The LME inventory is decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [64]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, inventory data, and basis data are provided [65][71][76]. Nickel - Supply - demand situation: The takeover of mines in Indonesia causes supply concerns. Nickel - ore prices are affected by nickel - price adjustments, and the supply of nickel salt is tight. Nickel - iron prices are stable and strong, and stainless - steel transactions are weak at high prices [80]. - Market data: Futures prices, inventory data, and downstream - profit data are presented [81][86][90]. Tin - Price forecast: May continue to fluctuate as the impact of monetary policy decreases and the supply is tight in the short term [95]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, inventory data, and processing - fee data are shown [96][100][102]. Lithium Carbonate - Policy impact: Policy support is expected to extend the peak - season cycle, and the downside space of spot prices is limited [106]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, inventory data are provided [107][109][113]. Silicon - Industrial Silicon: The market is characterized by "strong expectation and weak reality", with increasing supply and accumulating inventory, and prices may be volatile and weak in the short term [115]. - Polysilicon: Under pressure with increasing supply and inventory, but with strong policy expectations, and may be in a state of shock adjustment [115]. - Market data: Spot and futures prices, production, inventory, and price - difference data are presented [116][117][131].
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250915
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-09-15 11:08