瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand report is relatively positive for the cotton market as global production and consumption are adjusted upwards while the estimated ending inventory is adjusted downwards. Domestically, the inventory remains low, the market supply is still tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinning mills' operation rate remains low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,885 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,900 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2] - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 30,405 lots, down 1,108 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 314 lots, down 26 lots [2] - Cotton main contract positions are 498,295 lots, down 8,077 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions are 21,140 lots, down 346 lots [2] - Cotton warehouse receipts are 4,899 sheets, down 118 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 89 sheets, down 1 sheet [2] - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,249 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,755 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,371 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,462 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,205 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,817 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,506 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume is 50,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - Imported cotton profit is 1,043 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, down 0.7081 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; grey fabric inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days [2] - Cloth production is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.079 billion meters; yarn production is 1.9915 million tons, down 0.0735 million tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 104.955 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 444.198 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 11.03%, down 0.16%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 11.03%, down 0.16% [2] - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 9.38%, up 0.31%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 6.99%, up 0.05% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of September 9, 2025, US cotton futures non - commercial long positions decreased by 301 lots, non - commercial short positions increased by 2,821 lots, and net short positions increased by 3,122 lots [2] - In the 2025/26 US cotton supply - demand outlook for September, production is expected to increase by 10,000 bales to 13.2 million bales, while export, consumption, import and inventory remain unchanged [2] - The global cotton supply - demand report in September shows that the 2025/26 global cotton production forecast is 25.622 million tons, up 231,000 tons; global consumption is up 183,000 tons to 25.872 million tons; global ending inventory is down 168,000 tons to 15.924 million tons [2]