瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - International aspect: The sugar production in the important central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of August is expected to grow by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to increase by 9.5% year - on - year to 49.5 million tons. Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of the year after issuing 4.19 million tons of import licenses, with a total quota of 4.39 million tons [2]. - Domestic aspect: The sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained at a relatively low level. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, 0.65 percentage points faster year - on - year. The industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0601 million tons. The downstream is in the stocking stage for the Double Festival, and it is expected that rigid demand will support prices. Short - term sugar price decline may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,549 yuan/ton, a increase of 9; the main contract position was 381,607 lots, a decrease of 2,891. The number of warehouse receipts was 11,325, a decrease of 274; the net long position of the top 20 futures was - 55,352 lots, a decrease of 3,373. The effective warehouse receipt forecast was 6, with no change. The estimated import processing price (within quota) of Brazilian sugar was 4,418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27; that of Thai sugar was 4,376 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,611 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar was 5,556 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,855 yuan/ton, an increase of 5; in Nanning was 5,890 yuan/ton, with no change; in Liuzhou was 5,970 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60; the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 5.49; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 44.98. The national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 0.8143; the national sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an increase of 1 percentage point. The monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000; the total monthly sugar export volume from Brazil was 3.744 million tons, an increase of 0.1503 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) was 1,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; that of imported Thai sugar was 1,402 yuan/ton, an increase of 37. The price difference (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) for imported Brazilian sugar was 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16; that for imported Thai sugar was 222 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000; the monthly production of soft drinks was 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 7.93%, a decrease of 0.29; that of at - the - money put options was 7.97%, a decrease of 0.22. The 20 - day historical volatility was 5.5%, an increase of 0.09; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.23%, a decrease of 0.2 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of September 9, 2025, the net short position of non - commercial raw sugar futures was 139,610 lots, an increase of 53,805 lots from the previous week. The long position was 170,080 lots, a decrease of 14,220 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 309,690 lots, an increase of 39,585 lots from the previous week. Indonesia's Trade Minister Budi Santoso said that Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of the year after issuing 4.19 million tons of import licenses with a total quota of 4.39 million tons [2].