软商品日报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Sugar: The high sugar production in Brazil during the peak crushing season, with a year - on - year increase of 17.3%, and the global supply surplus continue to suppress raw sugar prices. In the domestic market, sales in August were weak, and the spot market was impacted by processed sugar due to concerns about relaxed syrup policies and high import profits. However, the inventory pressure of domestic sugar has eased, and there is uncertainty about the output in the new sugar - pressing season in Guangxi, so the price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [3]. - Cotton: The low inventory of old cotton, large pre - sales of new cotton, and the de - stocking state of downstream enterprises support cotton prices. But the poor spinning profit of spinning mills and the high hedging pressure under the expectation of a bumper harvest may limit the upside of cotton prices. In the short term, it will oscillate within the previous range, and attention should be paid to the listing of new cotton [13]. - Red Dates: On the basis of last year's bumper harvest, the output of grey dates in the new year may decline significantly year - on - year, but the decline compared to normal years may be small. There is still room for market speculation before the dates are harvested. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season is approaching, the overall downstream trading volume is average. If the production decline does not further expand, red date prices may face downward pressure due to the high inventory of old dates [18]. - Apples: Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. In Shandong, the packaging volume is limited due to the busy farming season, and in Shaanxi, the fruit sources are concentrated in northern Shaanxi, with the secondary production areas basically cleared of inventory. For new - season apples, the harvest of paper - bag Gala apples is almost over, and early Fuji apples are gradually on the market, but the fruit size is still small. The short - term market fluctuates sharply [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Futures Prices and Spreads: On September 15, 2025, SR01 closed at 5549 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16% and a weekly increase of 0.40%. The spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes, such as SR01 - 05 being 23 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 5 yuan [4]. - Basis: On September 12, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16 yuan and a weekly decrease of 7 yuan. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 315 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 21 yuan and a weekly increase of 3 yuan [8]. - Import Prices: The quota - within import price of Brazilian sugar was 4418 yuan/ton on September 15, 2025, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a weekly increase of 62 yuan. The out - of - quota import price was 5611 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 26 yuan and a weekly increase of 81 yuan [11]. Cotton - Futures Prices: On September 15, 2025, the closing price of Cotton 01 was 13885 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan and an increase rate of 0.18%. The closing price of Cotton 09 was 13900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 520 yuan and an increase rate of 3.89% [14]. - Spreads: The cotton basis was 1388 yuan, the cotton 01 - 05 spread was 40 yuan, and the cotton 05 - 09 spread was 440 yuan [15]. Red Dates - Market Situation: The output of grey dates in the new year may decline significantly year - on - year, and there is speculation space before harvest. The downstream trading volume is average during the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, and prices may face downward pressure if the production decline does not expand [18]. Apples - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 15, 2025, AP01 closed at 8304 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.3% and a weekly decline of 0.79%. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.8 yuan/jin, with no change [23]. - Spreads and Other Indicators: The AP01 - 05 spread was 36 yuan, with a weekly decline of 47.83%. The main contract basis was 290 yuan, with a daily decline of 7.35% and a weekly increase of 20.33% [23].