原油成品油早报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that oil prices closed higher this week, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy, urging G7 allies to impose a 100% tariff on Russian oil purchases. Fundamentally, the global oil market is in a state of inventory build - up, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined products inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 200,000 barrels per day in the fourth - quarter oil balance sheet, and an expected oversupply of 180,000 - 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. The fundamentals are turning to the off - season, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The report expects the absolute price center in the fourth quarter to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential influence on Russian supply [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased by $0.32, BRENT by $0.62, and DUBAI by $0.35. Other related refined products and by - products also showed various price changes. For example, domestic gasoline prices decreased by $50, and domestic diesel prices decreased by $35 [3]. 3.2 News - Trump stated that when all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil, he will impose major sanctions on Russia, aiming to end the Russia - Ukraine war and save lives. He also threatened new economic sanctions on Russia due to the stalled cease - fire negotiation efforts [3]. - The US proposed that the G7 impose extensive sanctions on Russian energy, including a 100% tariff on Russian oil purchases and the creation of a legal way to confiscate frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine's defense [3]. - The US Energy Secretary said the EU may phase out Russian natural gas in 6 - 12 months and replace it with US LNG [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels, with a growth rate of 0.94%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.888 million barrels per day, a 1.97% increase year - on - year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels, with a growth rate of 0.13%. Crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day [4]. - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [4].