2025 年 8 月贸易数据点评：转口贸易：会受影响吗

Export Performance - In August 2025, China's export growth rate was 4.4%, down from 7.2% in the previous month, while import growth was 1.3%, down from 4.1%[6][12] - The trade surplus increased, but the export momentum showed a mild decline due to high base effects from 2024[6][12] Country-Specific Trends - Exports to the US decreased by 33.1%, while exports to ASEAN countries increased by 22.5%[12][22] - Exports to Latin America fell by 2.3%, attributed to a decline in technical rush shipments and new tariffs affecting the region's status as a transshipment point[12][22] Product-Specific Insights - Capital goods exports remained strong, while labor-intensive product exports continued to decline[18][22] - Intermediate goods benefited from transshipment and processing trade, indicating a shift in export dynamics[18][22] Transshipment Regulation Impact - Concerns over transshipment regulations in ASEAN countries are a key risk factor, with potential impacts on export growth estimated at 0.7% to 1.2%[22][23] - Even under worst-case scenarios, a 40% tariff on transshipment and processing trade would only affect the export growth rate by 2%[22][23] Future Outlook - Short-term export momentum is expected to decline moderately, but medium to long-term resilience remains strong due to stable demand from non-US and non-transshipment markets[22][23] - Anticipated climate disruptions and base effects in Q4 2025 may influence export growth rates, with a potential rebound expected in September due to lower base comparisons[22][23]