广发期货《有色》日报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The macro situation indicates that a September interest rate cut is certain, but the long - term impact on copper prices is limited. The fundamental situation shows "weak reality + stable expectations". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, and prices will at least remain volatile. The main reference range is 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short - term. For aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate around the peak - season expectations and actual consumption this week, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures followed the rise of aluminum prices last week. It is expected that the spot price will remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The main contract reference range this week is 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. In the short - term, prices may rise due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply remains tight, and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US is strengthening. It is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - In the short - term, there is limited unilateral driving force. It is expected that the market will adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the operating range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.72% to 80,755 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 264.49 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; in July, the import volume was 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.77% to 21,020 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss decreased by 134.8 yuan/ton to - 1374 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM East China ADC12 price increased by 0.48% to 21,050 yuan/ton; the scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 6.98% to 1,432 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.23% to 22,230 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss decreased by 135.84 yuan/ton to - 2805 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%; in July, the import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 55.74% to 27.00 US dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%; SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [11]. Nickel Price and Cost - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.15% to 122,850 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.81% to 118,531 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - In August, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%; the import volume was 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Yuantong Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,150 yuan/ton; the futures - spot price difference increased by 11.11% to 450 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%; the import volume was 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.55% to 72,450 yuan/ton; the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 0.24% to 842 US dollars/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%; the total inventory was 94,177 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [18].