广发期货《农产品》日报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - CBOT soybean oil may decline further due to seasonal decrease in consumption. The basis of spot soybean oil will have limited short - term fluctuations. - Malaysian crude palm oil futures are in a consolidation phase. After the trend becomes clear, Dalian palm oil futures will choose a new direction. There is a risk of downward break - through. - The USDA's September supply - demand report is neutral to bearish. The overall rebound space of the oils and fats market is limited [1]. Sugar - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents per pound. The white sugar futures may stabilize around 5500 due to the raw sugar rebound, but the rebound space is limited. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [4]. Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range. After the new cotton is listed in the long term, prices may face pressure [5]. Eggs - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release will limit the increase. There is a risk of a slight decline in local egg prices after the traders' replenishment ends [9]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market will gradually shift to a supply - demand loosening situation, with the futures oscillating weakly. In the medium term, the weak situation remains unchanged, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [11]. Hogs - The spot price of hogs has limited room for further decline. After a short - term rebound, there may still be a risk of decline. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [15]. Meal - The domestic concerns about future supply are gradually alleviated, and the spot is loose. However, due to cost support, the decline space of domestic meal is limited. The cost support for meal in the fourth quarter is still strong [17]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Spot Prices: Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8610 yuan, up 0.82%; Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 9320 yuan, up 1.08%; Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil is 9940 yuan, up 1.01% [1]. - Futures Prices: Y2601 soybean oil futures are 8018 yuan, down 0.10%; P2601 palm oil futures are 9062 yuan, down 0.57%; OI601 rapeseed oil futures are 9496 yuan, down 0.53% [1]. - Basis: The basis of Y2601 soybean oil is 592 yuan, up 15.18%; the basis of P2601 palm oil is 258 yuan, up 143.40%; the basis of OI601 rapeseed oil is 544 yuan [1]. Sugar - Futures Market: The price of SR2601 sugar futures is 5540 yuan, down 0.29%; the price of SR2605 sugar futures is 5517 yuan, down 0.13% [4]. - Spot Market: The price in Nanning is 5890 yuan, unchanged; the price in Kunming is 5855 yuan, up 0.09% [4]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative national sugar sales is 1000 million tons, up 12.87% [4]. Cotton - Futures Market: The price of CF2605 cotton futures is 13820 yuan, up 0.18%; the price of CF2601 cotton futures is 13860 yuan, up 0.18% [5]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15182 yuan, down 0.03%; the CC Index of 3128B cotton is 15248 yuan, down 0.01% [5]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory is 148.17 million tons, down 18.6%; the industrial inventory is 89.23 million tons, down 3.5% [5]. Eggs - Futures Market: The price of JD11 egg futures is 3040 yuan per 500KG, down 0.13%; the price of JD10 egg futures is 3023 yuan per 500KG, down 0.66% [8]. - Spot Market: The egg - producing area price is 3.54 yuan per jin, up 1.92% [8]. - Industry Situation: The price of egg - laying chicks is 2.60 yuan per chick, down 13.33%; the price of culled hens is 4.61 yuan per jin, down 0.22% [8]. Corn - Futures Market: The price of C2511 corn futures is 2197 yuan, down 0.23%; the price of CS2511 corn starch futures is 2474 yuan, down 0.12% [11]. - Spot Market: The Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan, unchanged; the Changchun spot price of corn starch is 2560 yuan, unchanged [11]. - Industry Situation: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning is 571, down 29.16%; the import profit is 491 yuan, down 2.73% [11]. Hogs - Futures Market: The price of LH2511 hog futures is 13255 yuan, down 0.49%; the price of LH2601 hog futures is 13690 yuan, down 0.29% [15]. - Spot Market: The Henan spot price is 13450 yuan, down 50 yuan; the Shandong spot price is 13550 yuan, up 50 yuan [15]. - Industry Situation: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 148973, up 0.65%; the self - breeding profit per pig per week is 17 yuan, down 68.02% [15]. Meal - Futures Market: The price of M2601 soybean meal futures is 3079 yuan, down 0.29%; the price of RM2601 rapeseed meal futures is 2531 yuan, down 1.40% [17]. - Spot Market: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 3050 yuan, up 0.66%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2650 yuan, up 0.76% [17]. - Industry Situation: The soybean meal inventory is 29065 lots, up 5.4%; the rapeseed meal inventory is 10383 lots, unchanged [17].