建信期货多晶硅日报-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Policy-driven logic takes precedence over fundamentals. The high premium of futures prices reflects an optimistic outlook, but policy-driven factors are volatile. Spot prices are dragged down by fundamentals, and the reaction of futures prices is limited. The policy sets a long - term bullish trend, and spot prices provide rigid support for the futures market. However, weak reality and negative basis restrict short - term upward space. Currently, the market is in a cautiously bullish and volatile state, with support observed around 49,000 yuan [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract fluctuated. The closing price of PS2511 was 53,545 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%, with a trading volume of 237,981 lots and an open interest of 132,212 lots, a net decrease of 2,686 lots. The closing price of PS2601 was 55,965 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.28%, with a trading volume of 29,847 lots and an open interest of 41,271 lots, a net increase of 887 lots [4] 3.2 Market News - On September 15, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 7,850 lots (23,550 tons), an increase of 30 lots from the previous trading day. The "Notice on Improving the Price Mechanism to Promote the Proximity Consumption of New Energy Power Generation" stipulates that the power source of proximity consumption projects should be connected to the user side at the demarcation point between the user and the public power grid. The proportion of annual self - generated power consumption of new energy to the total available power generation should be no less than 60%, and the proportion to the total power consumption should be no less than 30% (no less than 35% for new projects starting from 2030). The project should have the condition of sub - meter metering. From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1109.6GW, and the newly added installed capacity was 223.25GW. The newly added installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5]